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Ahmed Barakat
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XRP price is trading near $1.51 after falling about 5% in a week, while BlackRock rumors of a spot XRP ETF resurface. The immediate tension is whether the existing funds have attracted enough demand to justify BlackRock entering as XRP tests a pivotal support area.
The near-term decision points are $1.45 on the downside and $1.55-$1.56 on the upside. That leaves the XRP price outlook dependent on price confirmation. The token remains about 59% below its $3.65 all-time high from July 2025.
Seven other U.S. spot XRP ETFs held about $1.77 billion in assets and approximately 1.18 billion XRP, or 1.9% of the circulating supply. The funds had attracted about $1.79 billion in investment after withdrawals, while contributions rose by approximately $76 million in the preceding week.
The fee math also gives BlackRock a reason to wait. At a typical 0.25% annual fee, $1.77 billion in combined assets would produce about $4.4 million in annual fees across all seven issuers, before those revenues are divided among them. A new entrant could compete by charging less, but that would further reduce the revenue available from a market that remains modest by the scale of BlackRock’s existing ETF business.
Robbie Mitchnick, BlackRock’s head of digital assets, identified client demand, market value, liquidity, maturity, and portfolio fit as considerations for a crypto ETF launch, with client demand the leading criterion. A registration statement would establish an application, but even a filed fund would not guarantee immediate XRP purchases: spot funds acquire coins as investor capital enters.
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XRP $1.50 Price Pivot Puts $1.45 and $1.56 in Focus
The supplied price snapshot places XRP around $1.49-$1.50. CoinGecko’s historical data records a UTC close of $1.49 on September 29 and $1.50 on September 28; those dated closes are reference points, not a live quote. The market is testing the area identified in the report as immediate support rather than confirming that it has failed.
$1.50 is the level being tested, while $1.45 marks a deeper failure point in the supplied short-term framework. A move back above $1.55-$1.56 would offer stronger evidence that buyers have absorbed supply than a brief bounce from the pivot.
Related analysis of XRP’s price levels and market risks can add context, but the evidence here does not include moving-average or on-chain readings that would support a more elaborate technical claim.
| Price area | Technical significance | What would change the read |
|---|---|---|
| $1.55-$1.56 | Upper price area in the short-term framework | A clear move above it would improve the short-term structure |
| About $1.50 | Immediate pivot and support area | Holding it would keep the current support thesis intact |
| About $1.45 | Downside trigger identified in the report | A break below it would weaken the setup |
The decline from $1.57 on September 25 to $1.49 at the September 29 UTC close also gives the support test some context: the pullback followed a sharp retreat from the earlier snapshot, rather than a slow drift around $1.50. It does not, by itself, establish whether the area will hold.
For the above, price response around the pivot and the two nearby thresholds matters more than the narrative attached to them.
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BlackRock Filing Remains Speculation
Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg speculated in January 2026 that BlackRock might file for an XRP ETF by late 2026 or early 2027. BlackRock has confirmed no such timetable, and the primary report says no application or launch has been confirmed. The BlackRock XRP ETF remains a market possibility, not a known event to price as though it were imminent.
BlackRock’s separate relationship with Ripple does not change that assessment. The asset manager accepts Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin as collateral for its tokenized Treasury fund, BUIDL, but RLUSD is not XRP, and that arrangement is not evidence of a spot XRP fund. Conflating the two would turn a distinct business relationship into an unsupported ETF signal.
Until either development appears, the trade is defined more clearly by XRP’s support and resistance than by BlackRock rumors. Existing ETF demand is measurable, but its scale and estimated fee pool do not yet establish that the world’s largest asset manager will enter. The next evidence is either a confirmed filing or a decisive move out of the $1.45-$1.56 range.
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