Will CPI Cause Sell-Off? Bitcoin and Asian Stocks Brace

Does this recovery have enough momentum to survive another inflation surprise? A hotter reading could revive concerns about borrowing costs, while weaker inflation might give risk assets room to recover. Will the latest CPI figures determine if the rebound continues, or will it cause a sell-off?

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Will CPI Cause Sell-Off Across Asian Markets?

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to publish October CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET on November 10. Economists expect headline inflation to increase 0.3% month-over-month, slowing from September’s 0.6% rise. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is forecast to increase 0.2%, compared with 0.3% previously.

Last year’s government shutdown prevented the BLS from collecting the necessary October 2025 data. Economists nevertheless estimate headline inflation would have reached 3.9% annually.

The stakes remain high because markets have increasingly priced in another Federal Reserve rate hike. Traders recently assigned an 84% to 85% probability to a December increase, following stronger employment data. The Fed’s benchmark interest rate currently stands at 3.75% to 4%.

A hotter-than-expected reading could strengthen the case for tighter monetary policy. Higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar would potentially pressure Asian equities, particularly technology companies with valuations sensitive to financing costs.

South Korea’s KOSPI could face the greatest exposure. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are central to the global semiconductor supply chain, making the index particularly sensitive to changes in AI investment sentiment. Both companies helped drive today’s rebound, with their shares rising 5.1% and 6.8%, respectively.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index offers another important benchmark. Its technology-heavy components could face renewed pressure if investors reduce exposure to growth stocks. Singapore’s Straits Times Index provides a useful contrast, given its greater exposure to financial institutions and dividend-paying companies.

A cooler reading could produce the opposite reaction, easing rate concerns and supporting another regional advance.

Bitcoin Faces $73K Test as NVIDIA Scare Grows

Bitcoin is trading around $74,600 ahead of the inflation release, leaving it close to a crucial support zone. Our analysts identified the $73,000 level as an important level, with a sustained break potentially exposing $70,000.

A hotter CPI reading could intensify selling pressure as investors reassess interest-rate expectations. Bitcoin’s recent weakness also reflects fading institutional demand, with US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recording $1.28 billion in outflows last week.

A softer inflation report could trigger a relief rally, but it might not guarantee a sustained recovery. Stronger ETF demand and improved liquidity would still be necessary to support a meaningful reversal.

NVIDIA adds another complication. The chipmaker and CEO Jensen Huang is being sued in a proposed shareholder class action filed in California yesterday. Investor Mark Kistenmacher alleges that NVIDIA misled shareholders about Huang’s relationship with Alice Huang, a former executive at Singapore-based data center company Megaspeed.

The complaint claims the alleged relationship created reputational and national security risks that investors should have known about. NVIDIA’s board had already announced an independent investigation, while the company had not immediately commented on the lawsuit.

NVIDIA shares fell 4.3% on Monday, erasing $190 billion in market cap. The decline arrived just as Asian semiconductor shares were attempting to recover from last week’s technology-led sell-off.

NVIDIA remains central to the AI investment cycle, and any deterioration in confidence surrounding the company could amplify concerns about semiconductor valuations and the sustainability of AI spending. That could leave Korean chipmakers particularly vulnerable if another inflation shock hits markets.

So, will CPI cause a sell-off? It depends on a few factors. We might need to watch core prices, Treasury yields, and the dollar for clues about the Federal Reserve’s next move. A cooler report could extend the recovery, but a hotter reading may expose how fragile confidence in Asian technology stocks and Bitcoin is.

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