Mike Johnson can likely only afford to lose a single GOP vote if he wants to remain speaker. He’s already got one Republican promising to oppose him, and about a dozen more who won’t commit to backing him.
Many of those publicly undecided lawmakers have indicated they won’t reveal how they plan to vote ahead of time so, for now, it’s impossible to predict if Johnson can succeed. And while Speaker Mike Johnson said Thursday that it was his “plan” to win on the first ballot that will commence shortly after noon on Friday, even his allies are telegraphing that it might take a few votes before he clinches it.
The House is starting the 119th Congress with effectively a 219-215 GOP-led chamber, assuming former Rep. Matt Gaetz doesn’t participate. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) has already said he’ll vote against Johnson. There are several undecided members who will be called before him in the alphabetical roll call, giving early indications if the speaker fight will drag out or be settled quickly. And remember, Democrats are expecting full attendance and have no desire to throw Johnson a lifeline.
The speaker has indicated he’s working with conservative members who have demanded concessions in exchange for their support.
“People are talking through process changes they want, and those kinds of things, and I’m open to that,” Johnson said Thursday after meeting with a number of the holdouts.
Here’s who else to watch:
Rep. Victoria Spartz: Long-considered one of the most unpredictable Republican members, the Indiana Republican made waves in mid-December by saying she’d forswear committee assignments and GOP conference meetings.
“I would like to hear from him, how he’s going to be delivering this agenda and what plan he has, and he hasn’t been doing it,” Spartz said Monday on “Fox and Friends.” Remember, Spartz is the same member who announced she’d step aside from Congress before reconsidering and changing course in February 2024. She’s also publicly said she would vote against several pieces of legislation and then changed her mind at the last minute.
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas): The Texas conservative has been unbowed even as Donald Trump has threatened to primary him. “I remain undecided, as do a number of my colleagues because we saw so many of the failures last year that we are concerned might limit or inhibit our ability to advance the president’s agenda,” Roy said Tuesday on Fox Business’ “Varney & Co.” He’s floated GOP Reps. Byron Donalds (Fla.) and Jim Jordan (Ohio) as possible alternatives, though neither man is expected to have the votes.
Rep. Andy Biggs: The earliest warning sign for Johnson may be how the Arizona conservative votes on the speakership question. The former House Freedom Caucus chair is early in the alphabet and has recently said he is undecided on Johnson’s future.
Rep. Tim Burchett: The chatty Tennessee Republican has also been noncommittal about backing Johnson for speaker, though he predicted Johnson would ultimately have the votes to continue leading the House. “I think that the die has been cast pretty much. But as I stated, I will make up my mind on Friday,” Burchett said on Fox News’ “Your World” on Monday. He’ll come shortly after Biggs, so watch for early signs of a rebellion.
Rep. Lauren Boebert: The Colorado firebrand has been non-committal ahead of the vote, but said notably last May that “it makes no difference to me if it’s Hakeem Jeffries as speaker or Mike Johnson.” Johnson endorsed Boebert as she switched districts across her state last year.
Rep. Ralph Norman: The South Carolina conservative, like Roy and Massie, was a member of the powerful Rules Committee last Congress but has been noticeably reserved on whether he’d support Johnson for another term, but has questioned who else could get it. “Who would want the job?” he asked POLITICO.
House Freedom Caucus hardliners: Led by Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.), other members of the ultra-conservative bloc haven’t been willing to tip their hands on whether they’ll support Johnson on the floor. Other Republicans in this group include Reps. Scott Perry (Pa.), Eli Crane (Ariz.), Eric Burlison (Mo.), Michael Cloud (Texas) and Andrew Clyde (Ga.).
Democratic attendance: Perhaps the greatest X factor for the vote is whether Democrats can deliver on their confident projections of full attendance. It would require the return of members like Rep. Dwight Evans (Pa.), out since July following what his office called a “minor” stroke; former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.), who is recovering from hip replacement surgery; and members like Reps. Raul Grijalva (Ariz.) and Gerry Connolly (Va.), recovering from or in the midst of cancer treatment.
It seems unlikely any Democrats would step in to save Johnson from GOP hardliner defections as they pledged to do last spring. Even the most conservative members of the conference — think Reps. Jared Golden (Maine) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.) — voted for Hakeem Jeffries during last session’s protracted speaker fight, staying united against former Speaker Kevin McCarthy on all 15 ballots.
