What to watch as US election results stream in

In today’s newsletter:

• What to watch as US election results come in

• China and Saudi Arabia’s deepening financial ties

• Signs of life in China’s property market?

Good morning. Final votes are being cast in the tightest US presidential election race in modern history, with the first polls closing in about an hour. Who voters elect — Kamala Harris or Donald Trump — could mark their country, and the world, for decades. Here’s what to watch as results roll in.

The seven swing states: The election is likely to be decided in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which have a combined 93 electoral college votes. The Financial Times poll tracker shows the candidates in a statistical tie in all seven.

Gender divide: From race to education and class, the US’s great divisions will be laid bare. But the biggest division could be over gender — and it may decide the election. Polls show women have been flocking to Harris on the back of her vow to protect abortion rights. But men have increasingly turned to Trump, who has tapped into their anxieties and grievances.

Timing of the vote count: Polls will start closing from 6pm ET (7am HKT), with the final ones shutting the doors at midnight ET. Results for some states will start to come in soon after. But we may not have a clear result for several days. Razor-thin margins could lead to recounts, and legal challenges could drag out the process.

Trump’s response: After refusing to accept that he lost the 2020 election, the former president has spent much of his campaign planting seeds of doubt about the integrity of the voting process. Here is what Trump could do this time around, should Kamala Harris win.

Follow the FT’s live coverage here — our correspondents will report from across the country as results stream in.

Our free-to-read US Election Countdown newsletter is turning into White House Watch, where we’ll unpack what the US election result means for Washington and the world. Sign up here to get the newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday and Thursday. Plus, we’ll have a special edition this Wednesday.

Here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:

• Global markets: The US election will have sweeping implications for global markets. Wall Street is preparing for “a long night for volatility” as investor mood remains febrile.

• Economic data: October inflation data is due in Taiwan, Vietnam and Thailand.

• Monetary policy: Malaysia’s central bank announces its interest rate decision.

• Results: Toyota, Honda and Tata Steel report earnings.

Five more top stories

1. China has picked Saudi Arabia as the venue for its first sale of US dollar sovereign bonds in three years, underlining its backing for the oil-rich kingdom’s bid to become an investment hub. Beijing has traditionally issued US dollar bonds in Hong Kong. The choice of Saudi Arabia for this new issuance is symbolic of the deepening financial ties between the two countries.

2. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fired his defence minister Yoav Gallant, saying that “significant gaps” had emerged between them over the management of the war. Netanyahu said that Gallant would be replaced as defence minister by the foreign minister, Israel Katz.

3. AstraZeneca shares fell 8.4 per cent yesterday amid an intensifying corruption purge involving its China chief. Chinese publication Yicai reported yesterday that dozens of executives have been implicated in an investigation of medical insurance fraud. The report came after AstraZeneca disclosed last week that its China president Leon Wang was co-operating with “an ongoing investigation by Chinese authorities”.

4. Apple has warned investors that future products may never be as profitable as its iPhone business, as it pushes into unproven new markets such as artificial intelligence and virtual reality headsets. The iPhone maker added the new warning on growth and profit margins to its latest annual report, in the list of “risk factors” facing the tech group’s business.

5. French and Dutch financial authorities raided the offices of Netflix in Paris and Amsterdam yesterday. The searches were part of a long-running investigation into potential tax fraud and breaches to labour law.

News in-depth

After a more than three-year slowdown, there are some signs of life in China’s real estate market. But interviews in six cities show there are lingering doubts about its longer-term prospects.

We’re also reading . . . 

• ‘Containeristan’: Shipping containers used to stop political demonstrations are an eyesore in the verdant city of Islamabad, writes our Pakistan correspondent Humza Jilani.

• Israel unbound: Buoyed by military gains, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now wants to dismantle Iran’s forces across the Middle East and reshape the region.

• Chinese cars in Norway: Brands such as MG, BYD and Xpeng are common sights on Norwegian streets, in a sign of how far China has advanced in cars.

Chart of the day

Taiwan’s soaring energy prices and growing outages are affecting TSMC, the world’s largest chipmaker. Following a series of price increases, the company now expects to pay more for power in its home country than anywhere else. Here’s how Taiwan’s shaky energy transition is straining its industry.

Take a break from the news

In tribute to Quincy Jones, the legendary US musician and producer whose death was announced yesterday, we are sharing an interview from 2012. Jones talked about his work with some of the most popular artists of the 20th century, including Michael Jackson and Frank Sinatra, and revealed how he learnt cockney rhyming slang from the actor Michael Caine.