- Radically reinventing the Air Force won’t win a future fight, its director for force design said.
- The Air Force has been analyzing and wargaming what it’ll need to defeat a top adversary.
- The service is now prioritizing how to tailor systems for countering very specific threats.
New fighter jets or bombers won’t be enough to win the next war, the US Air Force director for force design, integration, and wargaming said this week.
Instead, the service needs to focus on what specific threats top adversaries like China or Russia pose to Air Force operations to tailor solutions for defeating them.
At a Hudson Institute event on Wednesday, Maj. Gen. Joseph Kunkel, who oversees force design for the Air Force, talked about how the service is evolving its capabilities and strategies at what other leaders have described as a critical time.
Kunkel said that the Air Force has been on a decade-long journey to redesign and reinvent. That conversation started like this: “We probably just need to look at new fighters. We’ve always had fighters, so let’s look at new fighters, and we’ve always had bombers, so let’s look at new bombers.”
The US military has fielded new fighters, such as the Boeing F-15EX Eagle II and the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter, and new bombers, like the Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider.
But just upgrading to next-generation aircraft isn’t enough to prepare the US Air Force and larger Joint Force for future warfare. “When we do the analysis,” Kunkel said, “what we find is just reinventing the Air Force doesn’t win.”
Instead, he said, combat success is more about integrating capabilities and systems together, using autonomy and all-domain sensing, for example. “Those are things that we’re finding as game-changers,” Kunkel said, because they address specific challenges to the force.
South Korean Defense Ministry via Getty Images
The problems facing the Air Force in a future fight could look similar to the fight in Ukraine today, where the skies are contested, with neither side being able to secure air superiority like what the US and its allies enjoyed in the Middle East.
American adversaries are fielding their own next-gen fighters, and air and missile defense systems are becoming increasingly sophisticated, demanding more from pilots. And there are also growing missile threats, both in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, to bases the service relies on to conduct air operations.
One of the Air Force’s priorities in recent years has been Agile Combat Employment, which aims to boost survivability by having air assets operate from unconventional runways and outposts, thus complicating enemy targeting of US aircraft. Bases are fixed, but American adversaries can’t target every piece of concrete, every road and highway.
ACE has been a major focus as China has been building an intimidating missile force that could overwhelm US airfields and airpower in a missile strike. The Air Force is now building on this thinking, looking to ideas that go beyond new aircraft.
US Air Force/Master Sgt. JT May III
Kunkel said the Air Force’s focus is on something it hadn’t really done before: tailoring attributes for capabilities based on the threat. The first step, he said, is to define the threat and how it’s impacting US Air Force operations.
When the Air Force understands how potential enemies can pressure both air and ground missions, then it can determine what capabilities it needs to counter specific threats and deliver more than just an upgraded aircraft. Instead, it brings a targeted response.
The Air Force has faced tough questions about generating readiness and maintaining overmatch in a time of great-power competition. And last year, the service announced widespread changes in its focuses, more specifically in how it trains its airmen and develops capabilities needed for various threats.
At the time, then-Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said the service was “moving forward with a sense of urgency to ensure we are ready to deter and, if necessary, win.”
