TikTok’s last dance in the US

Hello and welcome to the working week.

It’s out with the old, in with the new. Joe Biden is beginning his last seven days in the White House before the inauguration ceremony in Washington anoints Donald Trump as president again. Biden’s legacy, at least in terms of industrial policy, looks doomed but he will no doubt try to end his term more gracefully than his predecessor/successor.

There is a significant corporate story linked to this handover of power. TikTok is set to be shut down in the US next Sunday under a bill passed by Congress back in April, requiring ByteDance, TikTok’s Chinese parent company, to sell its stake in the app or face a ban because of security concerns.

TikTok, which has more than 170mn US users, failed to get this law overturned by the US Supreme Court last week. But the video app could be saved by Trump, who had a Damascene conversion to the social media platform on his road to the White House, becoming cheerleader-in-chief for a business he once loathed for its Chinese links.

For those who want to get ahead of the game in the next chapter for US politics, the FT will be hosting a special subscriber webinar on January 23. Our panel will provide critical insights into what to expect from Trump’s second term. Register for free here.

Moving on to another change at the top: France’s new Prime Minister François Bayrou is expected to lay out his policy priorities on Tuesday when he gives his first address as premier to French parliament. If you want to know more about what makes this “original centrist” politician tick, read this.

We are now well into a new earnings season and results will be coming thick and fast this week. The main acts are the Wall Street banks, reporting fourth-quarter figures.

Notable among them, but not necessarily for good reasons, is Citigroup. The New York-based bank, which has struggled to rediscover its form since its near collapse at the height of the 2008 financial crisis, is expected to swing to a profit from a $1.8bn loss in the same quarter a year earlier. But the key target of the bank’s return on tangible equity is expected to fall short of what is needed to reach chief executive Jane Fraser’s previously stated targets, according to analysts.

Finally, there will be much to discuss on the world economic outlook. Inflation data will be flowing freely over the next seven days, from India, the US and various European countries. Also, the European Central Bank publishes its latest monetary policy meeting minutes on Thursday. These are likely to underline the challenges major economies face in taming the cost of living scourge, possibly indicating their next moves, as the FT editorial board has noted.

There is a rush of other economic news. China will publish a fourth-quarter GDP update, plus trade, retail sales, industrial production and credit aggregates data. From the US, we will also have retail sales and industrial production figures plus the National Association of Home Builders housing numbers. The UK will furnish the markets with monthly GDP, retail sales, industrial production, RICS house price data. Central banker speeches are also going to be plentiful. More details, and timings, below.

One more thing . . . 

Los Angeles has been the centre of media attention for tragic reasons. So it will be a relief to some in the city that the news of the Oscar nominations will go ahead (albeit a couple of days later than originally planned) this coming Sunday. Will Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Anora or The Brutalist win out?

Personally, I don’t really care, and none of those options particularly appeal to me, but I am thankful that I still have a vibrant local independent cinema in my corner of central London — yes, ladies and gentlemen, the winner is the Genesis. A good place to watch a film does not solve life’s disasters, but it can provide a much-needed distraction.

What are your priorities for the week ahead? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• China: December trade figures

• EU: Q3 balance of payments data

• India: December consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• UK: annual Make UK/PwC senior manufacturing executives survey

• Results: HCL Technologies Q3, PageGroup Q4 trading update

Tuesday

• Bank of England deputy governor for financial stability Sarah Breeden speaks at the Financial Stability Law Forum in Zurich, Switzerland

• India: monthly wholesale price index (WPI) inflation rate data

• US: December producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• Results: Card Factory trading update, Games Workshop HY, Grafton Group trading update, Gym Group FY pre-close trading update, JD Sports peak trading statement, MJ Gleeson trading update, Ocado Retail Q4 trading statement, OMV Q4 trading update, Persimmon trading update, Robert Walters Q4 trading update

Wednesday

• Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee external member Alan Taylor gives a speech at Leeds university, UK

• Opec and IEA monthly Oil Market Reports published

• EU: November industrial production figures

• France: December CPI inflation rate data

• Germany: annual GDP first estimate

• UK: December CPI and PPI inflation rate data. Also, January private rent and house price statistics

• US: December CPI inflation rate and real earnings data. Also, Federal Reserve Beige Book published

• Ashley Buchanan becomes Kohl’s CEO, succeeding Tom Kingsbury

• Results: Ashmore Q2, Bank of New York Mellon Q4, BlackRock Q4, Citigroup Q4, Currys peak trading update, Fuller, Smith & Turner trading update, Goldman Sachs Q4, Hays trading update, International Distribution Services Q3 trading update, JPMorgan Chase Q4, Liontrust Asset Management 9M/Q3 trading update, Victorian Plumbing FY, Vistry Group trading update, Wells Fargo Q4

Thursday

• EU: European Central Bank publishes the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting

• Germany: December CPI and harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data

• Japan: November revised retail sales figures

• UK: November GDP estimate. Also, RICS residential property market survey

• US: January NAHB Housing Market Index

• Results: Bank of America Q4, Deliveroo Q4 trading update, Dunelm Q2 trading update, Infosys Q3, M&T Bank Q4, Morgan Stanley Q4, PNC Financial Services Q4, Rathbones trading update, Rio Tinto Q4 operations review (AM in Australia), Safestore FY, Taylor Wimpey trading update, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Q4, Trustpilot trading update, UnitedHealth Q4, US Bancorp Q4, Whitbread Q3 trading update

Friday

• China: revised Q4 GDP estimate. Also, December retail sales, House Price Index and industrial output figures

• EU: December HICP inflation rate data

• UK: December retail sales figures

• US: December industrial production, building permits and housing starts data

• Results: Citizens Financial Group Q4, DFS Furniture interim trading statement, Schlumberger Q4, State Street Q4

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• India: Hindu holy men carrying swords and tridents will lead millions of devotees into the icy waters of the rivers Ganga, Yamuna and Saraswati during the first Shahi Snan (royal bath) of the 2025 Kumbh Mela (Pitcher Festival) in the northern city of Prayagraj. The event, held every 12 years, is marked by ritual bathing, prayers and religious ceremonies believed to cleanse sins and aid in spiritual liberation

• Japan: Coming of Age Day (Adult’s Day), a national holiday to encourage those who have recently entered adulthood to become self-reliant members of society. Municipal governments will host special coming-of-age ceremonies for 18-year-olds today.

Tuesday

• Orthodox Christian New Year

• France: François Bayrou, the country’s new prime minister, gives his first policy speech at the National Assembly in Paris when it returns from recess

• UK: the National Archives releases previously confidential files from the British secret service, MI5, covering events and individuals between 1929 and 1975

• Vatican City: Hope, a memoir by the head of the Catholic Church, Pope Francis, and the first autobiography to be published by a pontiff, goes on sale

Wednesday

• Belgium: Nato military committee in chiefs of defence session begins in Brussels. The agenda includes a discussion on the Euro-Atlantic and the war in Ukraine.

• US: SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket due to launch in Florida, carrying the Firefly Aerospace Blue Ghost lunar lander to the moon, as part of Nasa’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services initiative

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

• Orthodox Christian Epiphany

• US: President-elect Donald Trump holds a rally in Washington ahead of his inauguration on Monday. Also, the 97th Academy Awards nominations will be announced in Los Angeles, and America’s TikTok ban is due to come into force