State of the TV Business: 5 Clear Takeaways From Upfronts Week

This week, I attended events by Amazon, Disney, NBCUniversal, and other streaming and network giants in New York, where they made their biggest pitches of the year to ad buyers.

The TV upfronts are an annual series of presentations and parties during which TV ad sellers do their best to sell the bulk of their inventory. Given the jittery macro environment and the decline of linear TV viewing, this year’s incarnation was expected to be a buyer’s market. A recent EMARKETER forecast estimated that tariffs could drag down this year’s haul by as much as $4.1 billion, a 23.5% decline from last year.

Still, the show must go on. And as far as I could see, the cloud of uncertainty didn’t keep people from coming out. They packed ballrooms and concert halls to get exclusive peeks at the fourth season of “The Bear” on Hulu and the sequel to “Wicked,” sip free booze, and catch Lady Gaga.

But the most entertaining moment of the week had to be Arnold Schwarzenegger, who came to Amazon’s upfront to plug his Christmas movie, “The Man With The Bag.” He had the crowd both groaning and laughing as he rambled on — until his “True Lies” costar Jamie Lee Curtis eased him off the stage.

Behind the parties and celeb antics, however, I could get a sense of the changing ad business — and five clear takeaways emerged.

1. The world has changed

Amid what’s usually a celebratory atmosphere, media companies couldn’t entirely avoid acknowledging that the world has changed. Sellers had to say enough to show they were sympathetic to the times, but not kill the vibe. This was a party, after all.

NBCUniversal’s sales chief, Mark Marshall, kicked off the week with a nod at the economic headwinds (and why they shouldn’t keep brands from staying on the air). Disney’s Rita Ferro also flicked at the uncertain climate and how Disney was all about flexibility, a play to fickle advertisers.

On the whole, though, execs tried to keep the mood light. So it was notable when ABC’s Jimmy Kimmel made an earnest plea for advertisers to support rival CBS’s “60 Minutes,” which is in President Donald Trump’s crosshairs.

2. YouTube loomed, even if media companies dared not speak its name

YouTube’s rising TV viewership — and the creator economy it’s built on — has been one of the biggest media stories of the past year.

Studios have taken note.

This year’s upfronts offered more signs of the shift, with Amazon renewing top YouTuber MrBeast’s “Beast Games” for two more seasons, and Fox’s free streamer Tubi bringing out social media stars like Noah Beck, who’s starring in “Sidelined 2: Intercepted.” And of course, YouTube reliably paraded out its biggest creators, including MrBeast and “Hot Ones” host Sean Evans, at Brandcast, its take on the upfront presentation.

Some legacy media giants like Disney went in the other direction by packing their presentations with famous franchises and Hollywood celebrities. Disney wanted you to know it had more than 100 talent on hand. The Mouse House seemed to be saying, hey, we have Hollywood-quality entertainment — and the stars most ad execs have actually heard of.

3. The upfronts aren’t just about TV anymore

Upfronts used to be about showing off your fall TV programming, but this week showed how media companies are trying to sell everything they have.

Everyone was promoting movies in addition to shows, for advertisers who like to be part of big marketing partnerships. Amazon trotted out the Kelce brothers of its Wondery podcast arm and Lizzo and DJ Steve Aoki to promote its Twitch streamer. Whole Foods appeared on the screen at one moment.

“Now it’s, let’s showcase everything that we have. It’s, ‘Here’s what we have, pick what appeals to your client,'” Alicia Weaver-McKinney, VP of media activation at ad agency Mediassociates, said of the broad menu on offer.

4. Sports are the new savior

Nearly every presentation was front-loaded with live sports as media companies leaned on the programming in their arsenal that’s most valuable to advertisers as they looked to drive deals in a shaky ad market.

“If you heard anything other than sports, it was item number two, three, four on the list,” longtime advertising advisor Michael Kassan said.

NBCU bragged that Peacock had more sports than any other streamer, and Jimmy Fallon didn’t miss a beat, quipping, “It’s great to be at the NBA upfront.”

NBA-less WBD was forced to talk up its tennis, the NHL, and women’s sports.

Some buyers privately wondered how sustainable the high prices media companies want for sports will be, though, given the glut of sports inventory out there and hesitance caused by economic uncertainty.

5. Big Tech is trying to change the language of TV

For the past few years, the tech companies have been crashing upfronts week, with Netflix and Amazon having their second in-person events this year.

Now, they want to change the way we talk about and value “TV.”

Netflix’s content head, Bela Bajaria, talked about slate, not slots, to differentiate streamers like Netflix from the old guard of linear TV, and pointed to its big engagement numbers to say Peak TV wasn’t over.

YouTube’s Neal Mohan emphasized how much people are watching podcasts on TV, the value of its creator-funded model of entertainment, and how it’s giving creators tools to spiff up their shows with TV viewers in mind.

And Amazon touted new interactive ads, data about how much its viewers shop on the platform, and the ability to get them to buy with the click of a remote, something no linear TV company can offer. Every Amazon presenter seemed to be required to utter the phrase, “Full funnel advertising at scale.”