Author
David Pokima
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Gold is currently trading at $4,906/oz as macro desks keep paying for convexity in the oldest hedge, while Bitcoin is trading at $72,639 after a bounce to $78,376. Same tape. Different bid.
Gold Flows Tell the Story
The “receipt” for gold’s new regime sits in flow math, not slogans. World Gold Council data for full-year 2025 shows global gold ETF holdings of +801 tonnes (second-strongest year on record) and Q4 ETF inflows of 175 tonnes, alongside Q4 bar-and-coin demand of 420 tonnes, the strongest Q4 in 12 years.
In the U.S., WGC reports U.S. gold demand of 679 tonnes in 2025 (+140% y/y) and U.S. gold-backed ETF demand of 437 tonnes, bringing holdings to 2,019 tonnes (about $280bn in AUM as of Dec. 31, 2025). That’s known as allocation-scale buying.
JP Morgan pushed the forward curve higher, as a Reuters-reported note set a $6,300/oz target for end-2026 and penciled in 800 tonnes of central-bank buying for 2026.
Positioning mechanics have also amplified the move. CME raised margin requirements for Comex gold futures to 8% from 6% for non-heightened risk profiles (and to 8.8% from 6.6% for heightened-risk), with silver margins to 15% from 11%, tightening the noose on leveraged metals books after violent daily ranges.
Bitcoin did not print the same “forced buyer” profile in this drawdown. CoinMarketCap’s tape shows BTC is still ~40% below its ATH of $126,198, which keeps systematic vol-control and risk-parity style sizing mechanically smaller than in trend regimes. The market cleared risk by selling what trades like a high-beta liquidity proxy.
How Desks Treat Gold vs. Bitcoin
A gold bid backed by ETF balance-sheet absorption (801t in 2025) and central-bank flow expectations (800t in 2026) trades through rate scares and margin hikes because allocators can average in with low tracking error against benchmarks.
Bitcoin’s “hedge” bid behaves like a risk-budget inventory on desks that fund it through liquidity. When margins rise, real yields reprice, or equity vol spikes, those desks cut BTC first because BTC sizing keys off VAR, not a quarterly asset-allocation committee memo.
