The average life expectancy for a Russian soldier entering battle in Ukraine is 20 to 30 minutes, Central Intelligence Agency director John Ratcliffe said on Wednesday.
Ratcliffe was speaking at the Pennsylvania Defense and Innovation Summit, where he attributed the deadly conditions to Ukraine’s combat drones equipped with AI.
“What I would say is, our intelligence is consistent with some of the open-source reporting you may have seen in Ukraine,” Ratcliffe said. “So the average life expectancy of a Russian recruit, right now, arriving on the battlefield in Ukraine, is estimated to be between 20 and 30 minutes.”
“And that’s because AI-powered drones have gotten to be such specialized, low-cost killing machines. And it’s why we’re now four and a half years into that conflict,” Ratcliffe added.
Russia’s defense ministry press team did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent outside regular business hours by Business Insider.
The CIA director’s comment is the first time a top US official has affirmed the life expectancy trend first reported recently among Russian military bloggers.
Several of these pro-war pundits, often well-connected to the Kremlin or its ground forces, said in May that Russian recruits tended to live between 10 days and three weeks after arriving at their training grounds.
One blogger, under the moniker “House among the Laurels,” wrote that the final stage of a recruit’s deadly military stint is a frontal assault — Russia’s primary way of attempting to take Ukrainian territory — that lasts 20 to 35 minutes before they are killed.
Ukraine said this month that Russia has lost about 1.4 million soldiers since the beginning of its full-scale invasion, with over 1,000 of the Kremlin’s troops killed or wounded almost every day. In May, Ukraine’s defense ministry said it was killing roughly 200 Russian soldiers for every kilometer of territory that Moscow claimed.
Some Western analyses, such as a report published this month by researchers at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, have corroborated Kyiv’s figures. CSIS analysts Seth G. Jones and Riley McCabe wrote that Russia’s rate of battlefield losses, about 30,000 a month, is eclipsing its recruitment rate of 27,000 a month.
“The Russia-Ukraine casualty rate has likely risen to nearly 8:1 in the first half of 2026, up from between 2:1 and 3:1 for much of the war,” their analysis said. The pair said they studied 20,000 incidents involving Ukrainian strikes against Russian targets to obtain their data.
Ratcliffe said on Wednesday that Russia had gained only about 1% of Ukraine’s total territory in the 18 months since he’d been appointed director of the CIA.
“The pace of their advance has stopped as Ukraine’s mastery of emerging technologies,” Ratcliffe said.
The US needs to learn from Ukraine’s drone war, he added.
“And in this case, drone warfare, asymmetric warfare, is such a great equalizer and shows why we have to be leading on this on all respects for us to maintain our place in the global marketplace,” he said.
