NATO member Latvia’s national security analysts have released a report estimating that Russia has spent an additional $130 billion trying to buy Western goods while being sanctioned.
Published last week by the Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB), the government analysis said the estimate was based on spending from 2022 to 2025, translating to an annual $32.5 billion loss.
That estimated figure is just for imports of Western goods. The international sanctions, imposed after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, also mean the country has lost hundreds of billions from its export markets and assets frozen by Western banks.
The Latvian analysts said their report accounted only for the additional cost of goods eventually bought from alternative sources, and excluded cases where Russia couldn’t find substitutes.
They added that intelligence showed that Russian institutions are internally forecasting further losses, “despite Russia’s public announcements claiming its economy is successfully adapting to the impact of the Western sanctions.”
Latvia, one of the Baltic States, sits on Russia’s Western flank and has been one of the most outspoken NATO members against the Kremlin, accusing it of running disinformation campaigns and covert operations to destabilize local politics.
Its analysts wrote, without providing details about their sources, that one Russian forecast warned foreign trade would lose another $136 billion by 2030 solely due to Western sanctions.
Another forecast said a continued loss of trade with Europe would account for about $70 billion of these losses, the analysts added.
“SAB assesses these estimates to be an undercount — the losses are likely much higher,” the report said.
The internal estimates don’t account for the “entire economic spectrum,” it said, such as reduced tax revenues or inflated consumer prices.
A separate internal Russian forecast put its energy sector losses at $216.5 billion over the next five years if “Western pressure increases,” the Latvian report added. The oil and gas industries typically account for about 15-20% of Russia’s GDP and nearly a third of federal revenues.
The report added that Russia has been struggling to find alternative markets for its exports in some major sectors. For example, Russian iron ore exports had been reduced by 40% from 2021 to 2025, and timber and cellulose exports dropped about 50%, the analysts wrote.
“SAB assesses that the lifting of sanctions will significantly increase the threat posed by Russia not only to Ukraine and Europe, but also globally,” the analysts wrote, saying that the Kremlin could be freed up to assist Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, and Cuba.
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin admonished his top economic officials on Wednesday in a rare public rebuke, saying that the national economy had contracted by 1.8% in January and February.
“This is not only below experts and analysts’ expectations, but also below the Government’s own forecasts and those of the Central Bank,” Putin said, according to the Kremlin’s public transcript.
