Republican former President Donald Trump easily defeated his former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley in her home state of South Carolina’s primary race on Saturday night, and while she recently vowed to stay in the running, her path to the nomination just got substantially more difficult.
Haley was left as the sole remaining major candidate to oppose Trump in January after Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis dropped out in January. She fared well in New Hampshire, bringing her total delegate count to 17 prior to Saturday.
South Carolina’s Republican delegates are uniquely not bound to a specific candidate post-primary election, making it difficult to calculate the exact number of delegates each candidate will finish with.
But the 16 primaries and caucuses happening on March 5 could very well make or break her chances at attaining a seat at the White House’s Resolute Desk as 874 delegates get distributed, or more than a third of the total amount.
If Trump and his reelection campaign continue down their established path of dominant primary victories, he’ll be incredibly close to blazing past the majority mark he needs to secure the Republican nomination.
The former president’s campaign has already signaled its confidence that Haley will falter on Super Tuesday.
Just before she gave a “state of the campaign” speech on February 20, Trump’s campaign blasted a memo to reporters predicting Haley would be “broken down, out of ideas, out of gas, and completely outperformed by every measure, by Donald Trump” as he crosses the majority threshold on March 12.
Once that threshold is crossed, the only likely scenario for Haley to become the Republican nominee is if she keeps her campaign afloat in case Trump is convicted of a crime before the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee in July.
But even in that event, there’s no guarantee Haley would receive the nomination in lieu of someone else, especially as the Republican National Committee has the authority to alter the convention rules at any time. And given Trump’s daughter-in-law is set to take a leading role within the Republican Party very soon, it’s difficult to imagine the RNC pulling any strings in favor of Haley, who’s repeatedly criticized Trump while on the campaign trail.
The state of Haley’s campaign isn’t enviable, but she can at least technically say she still has a chance.
