Most Horrific Wildfires in Recent US History Share One Key Feature

• The Los Angeles fires share a key feature with wildfires that burned down Lahaina, Hawaii and Paradise, California
• Powerful winds met flash-dried landscapes full of vegetation to fuel the flames.
• The climate crisis is increasing the odds of events like these.

The Los Angeles firestorms of the past week share a crucial feature with two of the most horrific wildfires in recent American memory.

The Palisades and Eaton fires may be unprecedented in some ways, but they share a common root cause with the 2018 Camp Fire that killed 85 people in Paradise, California, and the 2023 fire that destroyed Lahaina in Hawaii.

In Paradise, Lahaina, and now Los Angeles, the blazes grew to monster fires because powerful winds met a parched, overgrown landscape.

Scientists expect to see more of that in the future.

“There’s definitely a trend that increases this kind of situation,” Louis Gritzo, the chief science officer at the commercial property insurance company FM, told Business Insider.

In all three cases, sudden drought had sucked the moisture out of local vegetation, creating abundant kindling for fire to feed on. Then strong winds picked up the embers and carried them into residential areas.

“When we look at the recent really bad fires — the Camp Fire, the fires in Hawaii — they all have that thing in common,” Gritzo said. “They have a wet period, dry period, heavy winds, very rapid fire spread, a lot of ember transport.”

The winds were bad luck, but flash-dried vegetation is happening more often as global temperatures rise.

How the climate crisis creates more fire fuel

In Paradise and Los Angeles, the dry months followed unusually wet seasons that fed an explosion of plant growth.

Last winter, heavy rains in Southern California led to about double the average amount of grasses and shrubs, according to Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA.

This winter has not been so generous. The past few months have seen almost no rainfall, shriveling up all those grasses and shrubs.

Swain has coined the term “hydroclimate whiplash” — or simply “weather whiplash” — for these drastic swings between extreme wet and extreme dry conditions. He has observed it across the planet in recent years, from various regions in the US and Europe to the Middle East and China.

Globally, whiplash has already increased by 33% to 66% since the mid-twentieth century, Swain and his colleagues found in a new paper, published in the journal Nature Reviews Earth & Environment on Thursday.

That’s because warmer air holds more moisture. As global temperatures rise, the ceiling on how much water our atmosphere can hold is also rising.

That thirsty atmosphere sucks more moisture out of the ground sometimes and, at other times, dumps more rain. Hence, greater extremes of flood and drought — and more wildfire fuel.

The effect of the climate crisis on wildfires “has been slow to emerge, but it is very clearly emerging, unfortunately,” Gavin Schmidt, the director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said in a Friday press briefing announcing that 2024 was the hottest year on record.

The scientific organization World Weather Attribution has discovered a clear link between the climate crisis and specific instances of extreme fire weather in Brazil, Chile, Australia, and Canada.

The climate signal is “so large” now that it’s clear in the global and continental data, but also “you’re seeing it at the local scale, you’re seeing it in local weather,” Schmidt said.

The transition from wildfire to urban fire

So climate change is seeding fire fuel in forests and grasslands.

However, once wild blazes enter dense residential areas like Lahaina or the Pacific Palisades, they burn wood fences, ornamental yard plants, mulch landscapes, and leaves built up in roof gutters — then grow to consume homes.

“The natural fuels may be showering us with embers, but what’s burning our homes down and forcing us to run and evacuate is human fuels,” Pat Durland, a wildfire-mitigation specialist and instructor for the National Fire Protection Association with 30 years of federal wildfire management experience, told Business Insider.

As the climate crisis loads the dice toward extreme wildfires, he says it’s important for city governments and residents to manage those urban fuels by reducing them and spacing them apart.

“I think just about anybody could be next under the right circumstances,” Durland said. “It depends on the fuel and the climate.”