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TD Cowen argued on Thursday that the efficacy of Moderna’s (NASDAQ:MRNA) upcoming messenger-RNA-based vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) falls faster compared to rival shots from Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and GSK (NYSE:GSK).
Citing a Phase 3 trial readout scheduled for a presentation at a medical event next week, the brokerage said that Moderna’s (MRNA) mRNA-1345 vaccine led to an overall vaccine efficacy of 63.3% against two-symptom RSV disease at a median follow-up of 8.6 months.
mRNA-1345 had previously indicated an overall vaccine efficacy of 84% against two symptom diseases at another readout in Jan. 2023, which means the vaccine has a 25% lower efficacy at the latest reading than at the first interim look.
However, FDA-approved RSV shots, Abrysvo from Pfizer’s (PFE) and Arexvy from GSK (GSK)/Agenus (AGEN) didn’t indicate a rapid decline in efficacy, analyst Tyler Van Buren argued.
While Arexvy’s efficacy against three RSV symptoms or more dropped from 83% to 77% at 14 months, Abrysvo’s efficacy against three symptoms and two symptoms fell from 89% to 79% and 67% to 49% over 17 months, respectively.
Noting that Abrysvo’s rapid efficacy decline against two symptoms makes Moderna’s (MRNA) issue less concerning, the analyst wrote that mRNA-1345 “is still experiencing a similar decline in roughly half the time.”
“We note these are slightly different endpoints, but are concerned it could negatively affect 1345’s profile if confirmed with additional data,” Van Buren wrote. He has a Market Perform rating and a $75 target on MRNA.
Moderna (MRNA) has already submitted global regulatory filings for mRNA-1345 in RSV prevention for those aged 60 and older, expecting approvals to begin in H1 2024.
