Is Monero Traceable? What the FCMP++ Upgrade Changes, and When

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Ahmed Barakat

Author

Ahmed Barakat

Part of the Team Since

Mar 2024

About Author

Ahmed Barakat is a journalist and copywriter based in Georgia with a growing focus on blockchain technology, DeFi, AI, privacy, digital assets, and fintech innovation.

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Last updated: 

October 23, 2026

Monero (XMR) is built so that an outside observer cannot see who paid whom, or how much. Every transaction hides its sender, its receiver, and its amount by default, and there is no way to send a transparent Monero payment by mistake. That is why the question “Is Monero traceable?” usually gets a short answer: not from the chain alone.

The longer answer is changing. Monero’s developers are preparing a major privacy upgrade, known as FCMP++, which would replace the ring signatures that hide every spend today. It is not live yet, and it has no official fork date. Here is what it would change, what research says about Monero’s privacy now, and what users can do in the meantime.

HiddenSwap (hiddenswap.com) is a no-KYC, anonymous crypto exchange for crypto-to-crypto swaps: no account, no email, and no ID needed to swap. It follows the upgrade on a public FCMP++ status tracker, with sources for every entry.

How Monero Hides a Payment Today

Monero uses three tools, each covering one part of a payment.

• Ring signatures hide the sender. When you spend, your wallet signs with a ring: the output you are really spending plus decoys taken from the chain. Since the network upgrade of August 2022, every ring has 16 members, so each input points to 16 possible sources and only one is real.
• Stealth addresses hide the receiver. The sender’s wallet creates a new one-time address for each payment, so two payments to the same published address look unrelated to everyone else.
• RingCT hides the amount. Ring Confidential Transactions went live in January 2017, and every transaction has had to use them since September 2017.

Open a recent Monero transaction on a block explorer and you will see the 16 ring members of each input, one-time output addresses, and amounts shown as unknown. None of it names a sender or a receiver.

Is Monero Traceable? What Research Has Found

Monero’s privacy has been tested in public, and early studies found real weaknesses. A 2017 study by Kumar and colleagues could identify the real output being spent in 87% of the cases it looked at. A 2018 paper by Möser and colleagues found that many early inputs had no decoys at all, which let researchers rule out spent coins in other rings, and that the newest ring member was usually the real one.

Most of those problems were fixed by the protocol’s own changes. A minimum ring size ended spends without decoys, RingCT inputs turned out to be largely immune to the “chain reaction” the 2018 paper described, and wallets now pick decoys using the same spending-time curve that paper measured. The 2018 study’s warning was mainly about transactions made before February 2017.

Research on today’s rings of 16 continues. One known weak point is a pattern where you send to and receive from the same party again and again; if that party wants to follow your funds, it may be able to make a statistical guess. The fix on your side is simple: do not move coins back and forth through the same counterparty.

What FCMP++ Changes

FCMP++ stands for Full-Chain Membership Proofs, combined with spend authorisation and linkability. Instead of hiding a spend among 16 ring members, a transaction would prove that it spends one of all the spendable outputs on the chain, which the developers put at more than 150 million.

For users, the planned changes are:

• The same addresses as today, with existing standard addresses and subaddresses still working.
• A much larger anonymity set for every transaction.
• Larger transactions.
• Wallets that re-scan the chain once after updating.
• No more custom unlock times on new transactions.

A new addressing protocol called Carrot ships with FCMP++. Addresses from new Carrot wallets look the same as old ones, and Carrot adds protection against the Janus address-linking attack and the so-called burning bug.

Where FCMP++ Stands

The only public timeline is a draft plan by a Monero developer, who calls it “a non-binding working draft.” It pencilled in a first fork-enabled release for October 14 to 21, 2026, a fully featured release with hardware wallet and multisig support in early December, and activation around the first week of March 2027. However, at the time of writing on October 23, getmonero.org has not announced a fork-enabled release. Dates in that plan have moved before and can move again; Monero’s own blog said in May 2026 that a fork date was not set.

How to Stay Private Until Then

• Keep XMR in a wallet you control. A service where you have an account knows which address it paid.
• Use a new subaddress for each payer. If each payer gets a different subaddress, two payers who compare notes cannot tell they paid the same person.
• Run your own node, or reach one over Tor or I2P. A remote node’s operator can see which IP address a transaction came from.
• Avoid mirror-image payments. Let incoming and outgoing amounts and timing differ.
• Get XMR through a route with no account. Swapping BTC, USDT or another coin you hold keeps your name out of the record. On HiddenSwap you can swap Bitcoin to Monero with no account, and the XMR arrives at a one-time address in your own wallet. Swap records keep no name and no IP address.

HiddenSwap’s full guide, Is Monero traceable?, lists the research and the sources behind each of these steps.

FAQ

Is Monero traceable?

Not from the chain alone. Every Monero transaction hides the sender, the receiver, and the amount by default. Traces usually come from what surrounds the chain: exchange accounts, remote nodes, and repeated payments with the same party.

When will FCMP++ go live?

There is no official date. A developer’s draft plan points to around March 2027, but the developer calls it non-binding.

Will my Monero address change after FCMP++?

No. Existing addresses and subaddresses keep working. Wallets will need an update and a one-time re-scan.

Is Monero more private than Bitcoin?

Yes. Bitcoin addresses and amounts are public, and anyone can see the balance and history of an address. Monero hides all three parts of every payment by default.