How the EU’s united front against Trump’s tariff threat could crack

Good morning. About 11 people have died in Sweden yesterday, in what authorities have called the worst mass shooting in the country’s history.

Today, our trade correspondent reveals secret EU plans to hit back against US Big Tech groups should President Donald Trump impose tariffs on Brussels, in a dispatch from a meeting of trade and competition ministers in Warsaw.

And our Nordics correspondent explains why Jens Stoltenberg’s comeback could be an asset in dealing with Trump.

Feeling the pain

The EU is gearing up for a potential trade war with US President Donald Trump. But despite thorough preparations for countermeasures, their application could expose cracks in the bloc’s unity, writes Andy Bounds.

Context: Trump has called the US trade deficit with the EU an “atrocity”. He has threatened to impose tariffs in order to coerce Denmark into handing over Greenland, and to press the EU to drop regulation affecting US technology companies.

EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič yesterday told trade and competition ministers meeting in Warsaw that he was prepared to hit back hard.

According to officials briefed on possible retaliatory measures, one option is for the EU to hit Silicon Valley with its “anti-coercion instrument”, which would allow the restriction of trade in services.

“If you are weak, he eats you. And if you don’t negotiate, he kills you,” Luxembourg’s trade minister Xavier Bettel said yesterday about Trump.

But this might not last, if drastic EU retaliation makes Trump increase the pain on already vulnerable industries, such as steel and agriculture.

Some member states are already developing their own strategies. An official from one country said their government was buying US fighter jets and seeking more liquefied natural gas, to placate the US.

Dutch trade minister Reinette Klever said she would travel to the US in March. “I hope to speak to the Trump administration to defend the Dutch interest,” she said, calling for a “robust and proportionate” response to any tariffs.

But Péter Szijjártó, Hungarian trade minister and a Trump fan, left the meeting before it discussed the US. When asked about his response to the American president’s threats, he simply expressed hope that he “will bring peace”, presumably referencing the war in Ukraine.

“The worst solution would be each member state trying to have its own relationship with the US,” France’s trade minister Laurent Saint-Martin told the Financial Times. “If we want to build European economic strength, we must show the world we are united.”

He added that France wanted to avoid a trade war, but it was a question of “values”. France and the EU would stand up for a multilateral trading system governed by the WTO, Saint-Martin said.

Chart du jour: Polarisation

Friedrich Merz appears to have been cruising towards his dream of becoming Germany’s chancellor. Then, he suddenly decided to play with fire by collaborating with the far right.

Jens ex machina

During his time as Nato secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg was hailed for his magic touch in dealing with leaders from Donald Trump to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Now, Norway’s Labour party hopes his star power can once again placate Trump, help bolster relations with the EU and win elections in September, writes Richard Milne.

Context: Stoltenberg was named Norway’s finance minister yesterday, in a surprising return to the political frontline after nine years as the Nordic country’s prime minister, followed by 10 years as Nato chief.

Stoltenberg has no shortage of issues to deal with.

Norwegian politicians and business people are petrified of getting caught in the crossfire of any trade war between the US and EU, which Norway is not a member of. Stoltenberg’s famed status as “Trump whisperer” will hardly hurt, although there are questions about how far it can help too.

Oslo’s relationship with Brussels is also in the balance. Norway’s previous coalition government collapsed last week due to divisions over implementing EU energy policy. Stoltenberg’s Rolodex of European ministers will surely help there, too.

But Oslo needs to decide what it wants. Worries about Trump have reignited the debate about EU membership, 30 years after the last no from Norway. But the Labour party has also said it will not renew electricity interconnectors with Denmark, something the EU views with dismay.

Then there are parliamentary elections in September. Labour had looked like it would slip to its worst result in more than 100 years, before Stoltenberg popped up again.

“He was supposed to be winding down a bit,” his wife Ingrid Schulerud told Norwegian TV, “but there’s never a dull day with him”.

The 65-year-old won’t lack for excitement in the coming months, but his stellar reputation will be put to the test.

What to watch today

1. European Commission to present strategy on ecommerce issues.

2. French parliament votes on whether to topple Prime Minister François Bayrou’s government over proposed budget.

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