Harris and Trump make final appeals as race goes down to wire

Today’s agenda: Wall Street’s ‘neocloud’ AI bet; China pressures rich to cough up taxes; BoE set for rate cut; Hamas after Sinwar; and Buffett slashes Apple stake

Good morning. It’s the eve of the world’s most important election. Both candidates spent their weekends campaigning in swing states, with Donald Trump making unfounded claims of electoral fraud at a Pennsylvania rally while Kamala Harris carefully pushed an upbeat closing message in Michigan after appearing on the comedy show Saturday Night Live. Here’s the latest from the final days of the US presidential race.

Where the polls stand: Harris and Trump remain in a dead heat, with the Financial Times poll tracker showing they are still locked in a statistical tie in the seven battleground states. But one poll gave the vice-president an unexpected three-point lead in Iowa, a state her Republican rival won by nine points four years ago. The survey breakdown suggests a late surge in support from women voters, a demographic Harris has focused on consistently by campaigning on reproductive rights.

What to expect in markets: Bankers, traders and investors are preparing for a long period of high volumes and increased volatility. The early focus as the polls close will be on bond and currency markets, which trade through the night. While stock futures will also be moving, they typically become more reliable indicators in the morning, before the New York market opens. The Federal Reserve is still expected to lower rates by a quarter-point when it announces its interest rate decision on Thursday, with the election results potentially not yet known.

In tomorrow’s newsletter, I’ll bring you more updates on what to look out for as polls close in the evening in the US. For now, here are some recommended reads. You can also find all of our coverage here.

• What if Trump wins? The former president could feel emboldened to implement a radical agenda, with fewer checks and balances than during his first term.

• What if Harris wins? A legal and information war waged by Trump’s team to stop her victory from being certified could drag out the process for days or even weeks.

• Ignore the noise: Investors should tune out, writes Richard Bernstein. The reality is presidents have historically had relatively little impact on returns.

• America’s energy future: Few industries stand to gain — or lose — more with the election than renewable sources of power.

Make sure you’re signed up for our US election newsletter to get updates tomorrow. Here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:

• Economic data: The EU has its manufacturing purchasing managers’ index.

• Oil: The annual Adipec industry event begins in Abu Dhabi with Opec’s secretary-general attending. The cartel has delayed a plan to begin raising oil production until the end of the year.

• China: Top lawmakers have begun a week-long meeting that is expected to approve a long-awaited fiscal stimulus package.

• Moldova: President Maia Sandu is on course to win a second term, according to preliminary results.

Experts led by Financial Times editor Roula Khalaf will discuss their predictions for the world in 2025 in a virtual event on December 11. Register today.

Five more top stories

1. Exclusive: Wall Street’s largest financial institutions have loaned more than $11bn to a niche group of tech companies based on their possession of the world’s hottest commodity: Nvidia’s artificial intelligence chips. Blackstone, Pimco, Carlyle and BlackRock are among those that have created a lucrative new debt market over the past year by lending to so-called neocloud companies.

2. Chinese authorities are demanding companies and the wealthy double-check their taxes for unpaid liabilities as local governments hunt for revenue to refill coffers depleted by a property slump. The move threatens to further dent investor confidence ahead of this week’s expected fiscal stimulus. Here’s more on the tax “self-inspections”.

3. The Bank of England is expected to vote for its second interest rate cut this year despite predictions that the UK Budget will boost near-term demand and lead to higher inflation. But economists said the near-term stimulus was unlikely to be substantial enough to derail a widely anticipated rate cut on Thursday.

4. A bitter legal dispute prompted by an internal ethics code has broken out among Germany’s top economic advisers. As the Council of Economic Experts puts the final touches on its report due this month, one of the five academics on the panel has taken the other colleagues to court. Olaf Storbeck has more details from Frankfurt.

5. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez was evacuated from Spain’s flood disaster zone yesterday as furious locals pelted mud at him and the Spanish king over a string of failures that left people helplessly exposed to a deadly deluge. Some residents of Paiporta, a town that was home to nearly one-third of the 214 known victims, shouted “murderers” as the leaders visited the area.

News in-depth

Israel’s military has already wrested much of Gaza from Hamas, killing thousands of its fighters and assassinating its leader, Yahya Sinwar. But the political movement has always been much more than its military wing, and what remains will prove far harder to destroy. “Everywhere there is the smell of Hamas,” said one Gazan. “They’re not going anywhere.”

We’re also reading . . . 

• Economic mirage: The US economy looks unusually strong, but its recent growth has been lopsided, brittle and heavily reliant on government spending and borrowing, writes Ruchir Sharma.

• Argentine politics: Javier Milei’s deregulation minister speaks to the FT about his mission to create the world’s freest economy by taking a chainsaw to its statute book.

• Mattel after Barbie: With the film’s success, CEO Ynon Kreiz now plans to turn the company’s other toy brands into a “playground” for filmmakers.

• Gen Z’s woes: Does the younger generation really have it tougher than previous ones? Amy Borrett finds out.

Chart of the day

Warren Buffett has continued to slash his stake in Apple as part of a selling spree that has seen his Berkshire Hathaway dump $166bn worth of stocks over the past two years. Over the weekend, the conglomerate disclosed it had reduced its position in the iPhone maker to $69.9bn in the third quarter, indicating it had shed a further 100mn shares.

Take a break from the news

An email introduction should produce a meeting that is useful, mutually beneficial and fun, writes columnist Pilita Clark. But far too many break these basic rules that an introducer should almost always follow.