Investing.com — Goldman Sachs has delayed its gold price target of $3,000 per ounce, pushing the forecast to mid-2026 instead of the previous expectation for December 2025.
The revision comes as Goldman’s economists now foresee fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025, with a smaller anticipated reduction of 75 basis points, compared to the 100 basis points expected previously.
The change is expected to slow the pace of ETF gold buying, leading to a delayed rise in gold prices.
In a research note on Monday, Goldman Sachs stated, “We now forecast that gold will rise about 14% to $3,000/toz by 2026Q2 (vs. Dec25 previously) and now expect it to reach $2,910/toz by end-2025.”
While central bank demand for gold remains a key driver of the bullish forecast, contributing a projected 12% increase by 2026Q2, weaker-than-expected ETF flows following the resolution of the U.S. elections have dampened price expectations, according to the investment bank.
Speculative demand, which surged ahead of the U.S. election, has since moderated, keeping prices range-bound.
Goldman Sachs maintains that structural factors, particularly “structurally higher central bank demand,” will provide support for gold prices, even as ETF demand grows at a slower pace.
Central bank purchases, particularly following the freeze of Russian assets, have surged, and Goldman expects this trend to continue, with monthly purchases averaging 38 tonnes through mid-2026, more than double the pre-freeze level.
Despite this positive outlook, the analysts cautioned that the risks to their forecast remain balanced.
They explained that a “higher for longer” federal funds rate represents the main downside risk, while a potential U.S. recession or “insurance cuts” could drive prices above the $3,000 mark.
