Gloom ahead of IMF meetings as global confidence slumps

Today’s agenda: IDF’s “professional failures”; crypto gambling boom; Saudi groups embrace solar; China’s big UK investments; and Jamie Dimon’s call to “kill” meetings

Good morning. We start the week in Washington, where world leaders are gathering for the IMF/World Bank spring meetings amid rising threats to global growth, as shown by recent research for the Financial Times.

How bad is the outlook? Confidence indicators have slumped sharply following the shock of Donald Trump’s tariffs, according to a Brookings-FT index. The confidence numbers for the US are particularly stark, showing the lowest confidence levels since the index began, alongside a sharp deterioration in financial market conditions. Confidence levels in China and Germany were also depressed.

Why it matters: While it would be “premature” to forecast a worldwide recession, said Eswar Prasad, a senior fellow at Brookings, he warned that the breakdown of global trade and higher policy uncertainty would markedly suppress growth. “Every open economy that relies on trade is going to get squeezed,” he said. 

IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva warned last week that the fund was planning to cut growth forecasts, as “financial markets volatility is up” and “trade policy uncertainty is literally off the charts”.

Looking ahead: Global policymakers are awaiting clarity on the US president’s stance towards the IMF and World Bank. The White House is reviewing the US’s role and support for the institutions — in which it is the largest shareholder — with Treasury secretary Scott Bessent expected to comment on the administration’s policies on the IMF and World Bank on Wednesday. Here’s more ahead of the organisations’ week-long meetings, which start today.

• Reeves in Washington: The UK chancellor will make the case for global free trade and press the US to cut punitive tariffs on British cars and steel.

• Is the IMF next? Trump has already withdrawn the US from the Paris climate agreement and the World Health Organization, writes Harvard Kennedy School’s Edwin Truman.

• The high tariff world: Ruchir Sharma explains how the trade war will reorder the global economy — not burn it down.

Here’s what else we’re keeping tabs on today:

• War in Ukraine: The conflict continues after a 30-hour “Easter ceasefire” unilaterally declared by Vladimir Putin, which Kyiv has accused Russia of breaking.

• Markets closed: France, Germany, Italy and the UK mark Easter Monday.

Join Unhedged’s Robert Armstrong and other FT experts on Wednesday as they discuss how Trump’s policies are shaping markets in a subscriber-only webinar. Register for free.

Five more top stories

1. The Israeli military has admitted to “professional failures” and said it would sack an officer after an incident in which its forces killed 15 unarmed emergency workers in southern Gaza last month. The Israel Defense Forces has had to change multiple elements of its account of what happened after video emerged contradicting its earlier versions.

• Trump’s Gaza plan: The US president’s proposal to expel the strip’s population has piled pressure on his “favourite dictator”, Egypt’s Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.

2. Crypto casino takings have soared to tens of billions of dollars a year, new data showed, as gamblers bypassed blocks in their home countries to bet on unregulated offshore platforms. Despite being illegal in most countries, wagers paid in cryptocurrency last year generated $81.4bn in gross gaming revenue — a fivefold rise since 2022.

3. Saudi Arabia’s big businesses are embracing solar power as they seek to save on energy costs after the government eliminated electricity subsidies. Encouraged by decreasing photovoltaic panel costs and the state’s sustainability targets, several large companies, in sectors ranging from logistics to retail, have installed rooftop solar panels in recent months.

4. Exclusive: The billionaire co-founder of Hargreaves Lansdown is returning to the investment platform’s group board following its private equity takeover, a decade after he stepped down as a director. Peter Hargreaves has also put his son Robert forward to become a board observer, people familiar with the matter said. Emma Dunkley has more details from London.

5. The Trump administration has floated drastic cuts to the state department, including abolishing the agency for Africa policy and closing many embassies on the continent, in a draft executive order seen by the FT and disavowed as a “hoax” by secretary of state Marco Rubio. Here are the other proposals in the draft document.

• More US news: A Republican senator has hit back at Trump’s attacks on Jay Powell, saying no president has the authority to fire the Federal Reserve chair.

The Big Read

After spending a year on the back foot in the wake of Hamas’s attack, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has gone on the offensive. Israeli forces have seized land from neighbours while Netanyahu has pressured Trump to support military action against Iran. At home, Netanyahu’s administration has resumed a bitter power struggle with the judiciary and other pillars of the state. “What we are facing now is an existential crisis,” said a former chief of domestic spy agency Shin Bet.

We’re also reading . . . 

• Wall Street: Deregulation could free up US banks to support the economy and markets. But swinging the pendulum from safe to reckless is in no one’s interest, writes Patrick Jenkins.

• Americans in the Alps: A “flight to safety” by those fleeing the Trump regime is fuelling property demand in a small Swiss ski village.

• Trump’s trade war: Tariffs without industrial policy won’t bring manufacturing jobs back to the US, writes Rana Foroohar.

• Nassef Sawiris: Egypt’s richest man and co-owner of Aston Villa blames “10 years of incompetence” under the Tories for driving him to leave the UK.

Chart of the day

The UK government’s decision to seize control of British Steel from Chinese owner Jingye has led to demands for greater scrutiny of China’s investments in the country. China has poured more than $100bn into Britain since 2000, with energy alone accounting for almost a fifth of all major Chinese investments since 2005.

Take a break from the news

Jamie Dimon’s annual letter to shareholders struck a nerve with his call to “kill” meetings. But plenty of workers share the JPMorgan chief executive’s frustration with endless discussion, writes Emma Jacobs.