I’ve been very discouraged by the global rise in nationalism. But there is one glimmer of hope. Nationalism is often its own worst enemy.
Consider the current situation in North America. President Trump clearly dislikes Canada’s Liberal party (especially Justin Trudeau), and would vastly prefer a Conservative government take power north of the border. But Trump has recently antagonized the Canadian public, mostly over border control issues that seem of minor importance.
[You might think that Trump’s comments on Canada becoming the 51st state and the threat of 25% tariffs are no big deal, but recall this scene in Mad Men.]
Right before Trump’s recent criticism of Canada, the Conservative party had more than a 20 point lead in the polls, a lead that was expanding over time. Just a week later, much of that lead has vanished:
[As in most normal countries, red refers to the left of center party.]
A few caveats:
- There is still a great deal of time before the fall election, and I still expect the Conservatives to win.
- The Canadian Conservative leader is not an authoritarian nationalist.
But the second point actually strengthens my argument. The US as a whole and Trump in particular is now so unpopular in Canada that a more Trump-like Canadian politician would have suffered an even bigger drop in the polls. The US national anthem is now being booed at sporting events in Canada.
Trump recently split with Britain’s nationalist right over Trump’s support for a politician considered too extreme even for the Reform Party leadership. If the US starts imposing tariffs on our trading partners, that might further reduce the popularity of Trump among the European right. Given enough time, nationalism always breeds international conflict. Let’s hope it remains economic conflict.
PS. Slightly off topic, in a recent post I suggested that bigotry was becoming more fashionable on the right, an unfortunate side effect of a very welcome pushback against woke cancel culture. Do I have any recent evidence for that claim? When Marko Elez recently quit his DOGE job after he was shown as having been behind some offensive tweets, many people focused on the “racism” aspect. I was much more interested in the fact that he thought his own views were now becoming “cool”:
In his online comments under a pseudonym, Elez within the last year advocated for “eugenic immigration policy” and rolling back the Civil Rights Act, according to a Wall Street Journal report. “Normalize Indian hate,” one post said. “Just for the record, I was racist before it was cool,” another said. “You could not pay me to marry outside of my ethnicity.”
Elez is correct–racism is becoming cool, at least on twitter.
Vice President Vance (who’s wife is of Indian descent) had this to say:
I obviously disagree with some of Elez’s posts, but I don’t think stupid social media activity should ruin a kid’s life.
I actually agree with Vance that social media activity should not ruin an immature kid’s life. I suppose where I disagree with Vance is that I sort of wonder whether it makes sense to put immature “kids” into important positions in the federal government. Perhaps wait until they grow up?
