- Dubai is a haven for rich expats seeking business opportunities and low tax.
- Its real estate market is struggling to keep up with demand for luxury housing.
- Property prices keep rising as Dubai scrambles to build thousands more villas to meet demand.
Dubai is hot with the rich. The emirate has become an economic hub for entrepreneurship, business, and networking, while its lack of income tax is also a lure for many international ultra-high-net-worth individuals.
Geopolitical instability and tax policy changes in other hubs have only made Dubai more of a haven for the superrich. The influx of wealthy folk is causing a problem, however: there aren’t enough houses to meet demand.
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In its latest Dubai Market Review, property company Knight Frank found listings of luxury properties valued at more than $10 million plummeted by about two-thirds to 460 this year.
To meet surging demand, Dubai is scrambling to build more homes. Almost 9,000 villas will be completed by the end of the year, and another 19,700 are expected to be built in 2025.
Developers will have to build even more upmarket properties to meet demand. Knight Frank suggests that Dubai will need between 37,600 and 87,700 houses by 2040 to help accommodate a population set to reach about 5.8 million by then.
At the same time, prices in Dubai prime neighborhoods such as the Palm Jumeirah and Emirates Hills have soared, rising by 20% in the most recent quarter compared to the same period last year.
“Last year, we had 37 homes available for over $50 million,” Faisal Durrani, Knight Frank’s head of research for the Middle East and North Africa, told Business Insider. “This year, it’s dropped to nine.”
“We’re talking quite small numbers here, but it’s helping to paint this picture of a shortage of homes at the top end of the market.”
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Although Dubai’s real estate market is buoyant, Durrani said the housing bubble could burst if the global economy slows or oil prices falter.
A global recession would mean “a very real risk of job losses, population reduction, and therefore reduction in demand for housing,” he said.
Prices are expected to rise by 8% in 2025, yet luxury property in Dubai is still a relative bargain. Knight Frank found that $1 million buys 91 square feet of prime property there, compared with 33 square feet in London and 34 square feet in New York.
“When you put Dubai on the global stage and you’re looking at relative affordability and affordable luxury, it’s still reasonably priced compared to elsewhere in the world,” Durrani said.
