Ascending the ranks as a consultant, while difficult, is a linear track for many who land in the industry. Big firms head to schools and pluck freshly minted MBAs to join their ranks. After years of mentorship, long hours, and loads of hard work, you might eventually become a partner, one of the most prestigious titles a consultant could aspire to.
That dream might be creeping out of reach for younger people trying to break into the industry, which looks to be on the cusp of a big shift as firms trim their ranks, double down on AI, and tighten performance standards across the career ladder, industry analysts told Business Insider.
No one is exactly sure how it will play out, as much of the future will depend on where the economy goes and how quickly AI is adopted. But the end result could look something like a reshaping of the profession, with fewer entry-level and senior roles—something that could make it more challenging for young people in the field trying to rise through the ranks, analysts said.
That restructuring is already faintly visible in the numbers. According to Revelio Labs, a workforce intelligence firm, job postings in the consulting sector — which encompasses both consultants and adjacent job titles in the industry — have declined each year since peaking in 2022.
In 2024, there were about 3.4 million job postings in the sector, around a 26% drop from the prior year, the firm told Business Insider.
Among consultants in particular, the monthly inflow of senior-level workers, which Revelio classifies as the “manager” level, dropped 22% year-over-year in June.
The inflow of entry-level consultants in June was down 54% year-over-year.
Bubble deflated
The decline, while stark, isn’t necessarily apocalyptic. Management Consulted, a firm that conducts industry research and offers career guidance for consultants, says the drop is largely confined to specific areas of the market, like strategy consulting.
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Strategy, which is a subset of the broader category of management consulting, makes up a small portion of the overall market. But it’s what most people think of when they envision a consultant, as it involves advising businesses on key decisions like hiring and firing, spending, and expansion plans, Namaan Mian, the chief operating officer at the firm, told BI.
Mian says that many firms in the space overhired during the boom times of 2021 and 2022. Employers in that area are now under pressure to normalize headcount, he said, estimating that strategy consultant job postings were down 10% to 15% compared to levels seen during the pandemic.
McKinsey, Bain, and Boston Consulting Group — known as “The Big Three” in the management and strategy consulting space — have seen their head count numbers slow or decline in recent years.
BCG added 1,000 employees to its head count in 2024, compared to the 5,000 it added in 2022, according to its annual sustainability report.
Bain reported it lost around 1,000 employees globally from 2022 through 2024.
McKinsey, which didn’t release head count figures in its 2024 report, was reported to have around 40,000 employees this year, down 11% from levels in 2022.
Some of the firms have said they’re all-in again on entry-level hiring. McKinsey, which declined to comment on its hiring outlook, directed Business Insider to a report about its plans to expand hiring, specifically for entry-level workers. BCG also directed BI to a statement about its growth in 2024.
Ron Kermisch, a senior partner and the global head of talent acquisition at Bain, told Business Insider the firm grew its summer MBA program in North America by 20% this year.
“We were just absorbing all the people who we had brought in,” Kermisch said of the years following the pandemic. “But now we’ve worked our way through that.”
But analysts who closely follow the industry are skeptical that numbers will increase meaningfully in the future. IBISWorld estimates that hiring growth in the broader category of management consulting will slow to 1.4% by the end of the decade, its slowest pace since at least 2012.
“I think that’s PR positioning,” Mian said of companies talking about ramping up hiring.”Because you still want to be seen as an aspirational brand for top talent. And if you start to talk about how entry-level hiring is going to decrease in the future, then some of this top up-and-coming talent isn’t going to consider you as a potential employer.”
“I think we’re going to continue to see a very gradual culling of the herd in certain practice areas at certain levels,” he added, speculating that the shift could stretch on for as long as a decade before stabilizing.
Tom Rodenhauser, a consulting analyst and the managing partner at Kennedy Intelligence, also believes the decline in strategy consulting is more secular than cyclical.
“What’s different this time around is this isn’t a cycle that’s going to change dramatically. There isn’t going to be this huge surge and everyone’s going to go back to business as usual. There’s a fundamental shift going on,” he said.
New structure
Mian thinks the industry is shifting away from the pyramid model — one with a fat base and a skinny top-tier — to one with a larger middle that is lean on the entry- and senior-level workers. He sees a few reasons for the change:
- Demand is shifting. When big strategy consulting firms overhired, there was a lot of progress made in terms of figuring out the right strategy for businesses. That means strategy consultants are less in demand, Mian said.
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Wanting more expertise. Hiring in more specialized areas of consulting, like tech consulting, has increased in recent years. That reflects the fact that consulting firms are now looking for more experience, or those who have knowledge in a specific field, Mian said.
“These firms are emphasizing experience and expertise more than they ever have before,” he added. “And so, you still might be hiring nine or 10 people in a given office in a given year, but now instead of all 10 of them being undergrad analysts, maybe only half of them are.”
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AI. Like many employers, consultancies have been cutting costs and leaning toward artificial intelligence. Mian says that could play a big role in entry-level hiring going forward.
A Revelio analysis found that consulting was one of the industries most exposed to AI, with 45% of activities that could be performed using artificial intelligence.
“So could that cut down on analyst hiring in the future? Absolutely,” Mian said, adding that he believed junior talent was most at risk.
- A narrower partner track. Performance standards are being raised at top firms, Mian said, citing conversations with people in the industry.
Some firms are promoting fewer partners than they were in the past. McKinsey, for instance, reportedly minted around 200 partners in 2024, about half the number of new partners it minted in 2021.
Deloitte’s UK arm promoted 60 partners this year, down 25% from last year’s numbers.
Kermisch said Bain had “refined” its recruiting process and was now searching for specific traits among its pool of potential hires. The company is seeking those who have EQ—which will allow consultants to work effectively with clients—and what he calls “technical curiosity.”
“We want people to constantly be thinking, ‘How can I apply AI here?'” he said. “We want people whose natural disposition is to think that way first, so they can get that work done more quickly, more creatively than they would before.”
Kermisch said he wasn’t sure if it was now more difficult for consultants across the industry to become partners. He believes that large employers in the space will stick to the pyramid model, but he said it was possible that niche consultancies could have smaller entry and senior-level ranks in the future.
“They’re making it harder for you to be ranked as a top performer, and so that affects the opportunities you get,” Mian said of the partner track. “I think it’s more difficult today than it was 10 years ago.”
Rodenhauser thinks a similar change will unfold over the coming years.
“The old world — of even five years ago — and what particularly students were joining when they joined one of these firms is not going to be what it was,” he said. “The promise of the partnership, to become partner, spend 12 years of your life and achieve partnership and get the keys to the country club, that ain’t going to happen either.”
