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Tim Hakki
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Bloomberg Intelligence forecasts that Coinbase’s stablecoin revenue could jump sevenfold from its current $1.35 billion annual run rate.
Analysts point to a structural shift where stablecoins move beyond crypto trading collateral to become a primary rail for mainstream global payments.
Key Takeaways
- Coinbase generated approximately $1.35 billion in stablecoin revenue last year, accounting for 19% of its total income.
- Bloomberg Intelligence projects a potential 7x surge in this figure as regulatory frameworks drive payment adoption.
- The expansion hinges on the codified GENIUS Act, merchant integration via Stripe, and volume growth on the Base network.
Why Bloomberg Sees a Sevenfold Surge in Coinbase Stablecoin Revenue
Bloomberg Intelligence analysts, including Paul Gulberg, argue that the market is underestimating the utility phase of the stablecoin lifecycle.
While Coinbase reported $1.35 billion in stablecoin revenue for 2025, roughly 19% of its total top line, Bloomberg models suggest this figure is merely a baseline.
The forecast arrives despite Coinbase noting a net loss of $667 million in Q4 2025. The exchange’s revenue share agreement with Circle, the issuer of USDC, remains a bright spot, generating $364 million in the fourth quarter alone.
Bloomberg’s 7x multiple assumes that as interest rates stabilize, the sheer velocity of payment transactions will eclipse interest income as the primary revenue driver.
This thesis aligns with broader market data showing stablecoin transaction volumes hitting $33 trillion in 2025.
With USDC accounting for $18.3 trillion of that flow, the asset has already begun to decouple from pure crypto trading volumes.
The scale is big enough that the traditional finance sector can no longer ignore the fee generation potential.
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How the GENIUS Act Is Accelerating Stablecoin Mainstream Adoption
The regulatory landscape shifted dramatically with the signing of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act in July 2025.
By creating a federal regime for payment stablecoins, the legislation provided the legal certainty required for large-scale institutional participation.
The Act explicitly bars issuers like Circle from paying interest to holders, a move backed by the banking lobby to protect traditional deposits.
While the regulatory framework for digital assets remains complex, the GENIUS Act has effectively greenlit stablecoins for commercial usage.
This clarity allows Coinbase to market USDC settlements to Fortune 500 companies without the overhang of legal ambiguity that plagued the sector in previous years.
Stripe Integration and Base Network Expansion Drive Payment Ambitions
Operational catalysts are already live, fueling the Bloomberg projection. The integration of USDC into Stripe’s global payment rails has reopened crypto acceptance for millions of merchants, creating a direct funnel for transaction volume.
Simultaneously, Coinbase’s own Layer-2 blockchain, the Base network, is lowering the barrier to entry for micro-transactions.
Much like other scaling solutions, the Base network reduces gas fees to fractions of a cent, making dollar-denominated transfers economically viable for daily coffee purchases.
High-throughput networks are critical here, as the Bitcoin Lightning Network demonstrated with its $1 billion monthly volume milestones, low-fee environments rapidly attract payment liquidity.
By routing these payments through Base, Coinbase captures value twice: once through the underlying sequencer fees and again through its revenue share on the growing supply of USDC required to service this commerce.
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What a 7x Revenue Jump Would Mean for the Stablecoin Market
If Bloomberg’s 7x scenario plays out, stablecoin revenue would arguably become Coinbase’s most valuable business line, overshadowing its volatile trading fees.
This shift would fundamentally re-rate the stock, moving it from a cyclical crypto exchange play to a steady fintech payments processor. However, risks remain substantial.
The banking lobby is currently pushing the CLARITY Act in the Senate to close loopholes that allow exchanges like Coinbase to pass rewards to customers.
If new language bars these rewards, consumer adoption could slow.
Analysts at Monness Crespi maintain a sell rating, warning that optimistic projections effectively ignore the political target painted on stablecoin yields.
So, for Bloomberg’s 7x to be possible, Coinbase must defend its rewards program while successfully migrating user activity from holding USDC to spending it.
