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Warehouse leasing was once an unremarkable function of logistics — a boring business defined by efficiency rather than strategy. Not any more. Now it is a new front in the US-China economic skirmish.
Chinese ecommerce groups and third-party logistics providers have been aggressively buying up warehouse space across the US since Donald Trump started his second term in the White House. They accounted for a fifth of net new leases in the US through the third quarter of last year, according to Prologis. In New Jersey alone, Chinese logistics groups leased 5.6mn square feet of space last year, triple that of 2023.
One driver of this expansion is changing strategies of ecommerce and logistics groups such as Shein, Temu, Alibaba’s Cainiao and JD.com. It is not just that more consumers are using their services — though that is a factor too. It is also that they are trying to get ahead of regulatory shifts that could disrupt their low-cost, high-volume business model. Reliance on Chinese imports now calls for meticulous planning — and a whole lot of warehouses.
At the heart of this model is the de minimis loophole, which exempts packages under $800 from duties when they enter the US. Between 2018 and 2021, two-thirds of all de minimis packages came from China, with $149bn worth of them coming from mainland China over that period, according to the US Customs and Border Protection. Last year alone, the value of these shipments reached $64.6bn.
But Washington’s stance on de minimis is increasingly hostile. Trump’s early 2025 tariff package, which briefly revoked the exemption before a policy reversal reinstated it, means Chinese ecommerce groups need to hedge their bets. For platforms such as Shein and PDD owned Temu, the US is too critical a market to leave exposed. If shipping directly from China becomes too unpredictable, the best alternative is to stockpile inventory in US warehouses before tariffs go up, ensuring goods already inside the country remain shielded.
This shift is a big win for Chinese logistics groups. As ecommerce groups transition to bulk imports, increasing demand for cross-border warehousing and localised fulfilment means higher-margin, recurring revenue for companies such as JD Logistics, Kerry Logistics and Sinotrans, which specialise in supply chain management.
If de minimis is restricted or eliminated, Chinese sellers will have to ship more inventory in bulk rather than individual duty-free parcels, meaning higher demand for freight and distribution solutions, boosting freight forwarding revenues for logistics companies.
Warehouses are no longer just storage spaces — they are strategic footholds, buffers against political volatility. Each new lease bolsters the position of Chinese logistics groups, providing a hedge against shifting tariffs and trade rules. If imported goods are the new battleground, then warehouses are the strongholds.
june.yoon@ft.com
