Speaker Mike Johnson doesn’t yet have the votes to get his budget plan approved on the House floor. He’s barreling ahead anyway.
Johnson is looking to move the budget resolution through House Rules today and to the floor on Tuesday. The former seems likely, at least — the Rules Committee’s conservative hard-liners, Reps. Chip Roy and Ralph Norman, are on board with Johnson’s framework.
But Tuesday’s floor vote is ambitious, even with Trump endorsing Johnson’s one-bill strategy for passing the president’s border, energy and tax agenda. Johnson can likely only afford to lose one or two Republicans if he wants to move forward on his plan, depending on Democratic attendance. Rep. Thomas Massie has privately told members he plans to vote against it.
Other pain points: A handful of politically vulnerable members are still undecided on the measure. Some are planning to meet with Energy and Commerce Chair Brett Guthrie and GOP leaders today, as leadership tries to get Republicans on board. E&C is a major player because the budget plan would task it with cutting $880 billion — reductions that it will likely only find in Medicaid.
It doesn’t help that Republicans are returning from a week in their districts where several faced a backlash from constituents over Trump and Elon Musk’s chaotic attempts to downsize the federal workforce and slash spending.
Senate skepticism persists: Senate Republicans will be watching Johnson’s progress to see if the “Plan B” they approved last week will end up in play after all. Senate Budget Chair Lindsey Graham said that he’s hoping Johnson gets his one-bill plan approved. If he does, Graham added: “I will be his biggest fan.”
What else we’re watching:
- DOGE backlash: GOP lawmakers largely defended — or declined to criticize — Trump and Musk’s slashing strategy as they were confronted by constituents concerned about potential cuts to safety-net programs and the vast power the president is giving to Musk. And more Republican senators are publicly raising concerns about the department’s actions, including Sens. John Curtis and Lisa Murkowski.
- CRAs around the corner: House and Senate Republicans are gearing up to undo Biden administration regulations through Congressional Review Act resolutions and could begin voting on the rollbacks as soon as this week. The Senate plans to begin considering CRA resolutions that would reverse rules on bank mergers, methane emissions and other matters in the coming weeks.
- California wildfire aid: California Gov. Gavin Newsom sent a request on Friday to congressional leaders for $40 billion in federal aid to help rebuild after devastating wildfires in the Los Angeles area. It’s unclear whether congressional leaders will attach disaster money, or how much, to an upcoming federal funding package.
Meredith Lee Hill and Jasper Goodman contributed to this report.
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