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Ahmed Barakat
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Prediction markets and polling odds pointed toward Xavier Becerra as the leading candidate in California crowded governor primary ahead of the vote. In Kalshi pricing published on primary day, Becerra was the favorite both to advance from the top-two primary and to win the governor’s race.
With only hours remaining before polls closed, Kalshi’s primary-advancer market placed Becerra at 95% to move on to the general election. Republican Steve Hilton was priced at 4%.
Recent surveys also put Becerra in front, though the order behind him varied. An Emerson College poll cited by Kalshi showed Becerra at 28%, Steyer at 22%, and Hilton at 21%. The Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies placed Becerra at 25%, Hilton at 21%, and Steyer at 19%, while a Public Policy Institute of California poll showed Becerra at 23%, Hilton at 20%, and Steyer at 15%.
A separate report published before the primary described polling at 23% for Becerra and 20% for Hilton. It characterized the race as crowded, while identifying Becerra as the Democrat most likely to lead the field and Hilton as the Republican with the clearest route through the primary.
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California Governor Odds: Race Reshaped by a Changing Field
Kalshi reported that Becerra had entered the race polling at 5% and trading at less than 1% on its governor market in early April. The article linked his subsequent rise to Eric Swalwell’s departure from the contest and to setbacks affecting several other candidates.
Steyer remained a significant factor before the vote. Kalshi cited CalMatters reporting that he had heavily financed his campaign to a total of $200 million, including spending on social media influencers. Late primary-day movement also lifted Steyer from 33% to 40% in Kalshi’s advancers market before the article’s stated 39% takeaway figure.
Hilton’s campaign had the endorsement of President Donald Trump. Kalshi, citing The New York Times, reported that the endorsement may have hurt Hilton’s chances in California.
Prediction-market prices reflect trading at a particular time and can change as polling, campaign developments and voting information evolve. The June 2 Kalshi figures showed traders favoring Becerra, but they did not establish a final election outcome.
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