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Ahmed Barakat
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Bitcoin fell to $77,500 today, unwinding part of the nearly 25% August’s gain. It happens as renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and a fresh leg higher in Treasury yields rekindled bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike this month.
The reversal poses a direct test of whether August’s rally was a durable shift in Bitcoin’s macro positioning or simply a byproduct of falling yields that has now gone into reverse.
The U.S. and Iran traded a fresh round of strikes overnight Tuesday, with both sides digging in over control of the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump threatened to hit Iran’s oil infrastructure directly, while Tehran warned of further retaliation against U.S. bases in the surrounding Gulf countries.
Oil prices jumped sharply on the escalation, marking the worst U.S.-Iran hostilities in over a month and reviving worries about energy-driven inflation spreading through the global economy. Government bond yields surged in response across Japan, Australia, the U.S., and Europe, and markets moved quickly to price in a higher probability that the Federal Reserve would raise rates at its September meeting. Right now, inflation is still running above the central bank’s 2% annual target.
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Why Falling Yields Helped Bitcoin
August’s near-25% rally was fueled chiefly by a drop in yields. Higher rates bode poorly for purely speculative assets such as Bitcoin, and the same yield channel that lifted the asset last month is the one dragging it lower this week.
Renewed buying from Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, offered only limited support even as the company made its first purchase in two months. That the market’s most consistent structural bid could not offset macro pressure underscores how much of Bitcoin’s near-term price action is currently dictated by rates and oil rather than treasury-driven demand.
The selloff was not confined to Bitcoin. Crypto prices retreated on Wednesday after also posting strong August gains, with every major token trading lower against the dollar.
Solana and the TRUMP memecoin posted the sharpest declines among majors, while BNB held up best, slipping just 0.3%. The uniformity of the drawdown across large caps and memecoins alike points to a risk-off move. They are all driven by macro conditions rather than any single protocol.
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Friday’s Payrolls Data Could Set the Next Rate Signal
The focus this week is squarely on U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, due Friday, for further cues on the Fed’s next move. Any sign of labor-market resilience gives the central bank more headroom to hike, which would reinforce the same yield pressure now weighing on Bitcoin and other risk-sensitive assets.
A softer print would cut the other way, easing the immediate case for a September hike and potentially relieving some of the yield pressure that unwound August’s gains, though that remains a conditional scenario rather than a confirmed outcome.
Until that data lands, Bitcoin’s price action is likely to keep tracking oil prices and Treasury yields more closely than any crypto-specific catalyst as the U.S.-Iran conflict and bond-market rout intensified earlier this week.
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