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Ahmed Barakat
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Bitcoin price drawdown never produced a daily close below realized price this cycle, while aggregate NUPL remained positive throughout the cycle. That is evidence of shallower market-wide stress than in prior bear markets.
In the 2018–2019 and 2022–2023 bear markets, Bitcoin traded at a realized price for months below. This cycle, it never recorded a daily close below that level, and the June low remained above it. Glassnode says that if price holds above the True Market Mean, the June low would be the shallowest of the three bear-market lows shown in its comparison.
At the June low, Percent Supply in Profit fell to approximately the level seen at the November 2022 low, meaning a similarly large share of coins was underwater. The difference was the scale of those losses: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which measures paper gains and losses across all coins, never turned negative, unlike in 2018 and 2022.
NUPL staying above zero does not mean every coin or every long-term holder remains in profit, just as Bitcoin holding above Realized Price.
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What Does Holders Profitability Evidence Show?
Glassnode identifies the largest long-term-holder supply cluster at $84,000–$85,000. That concentration marks a meaningful area of holder supply, but a supply cluster is not proof that those coins are profitable or that their owners will sell.
Above it, the report places the mean MVRV price at $96,700. The measure is the Realized Price multiplied by Bitcoin’s long-term average MVRV, and Glassnode describes it as a level where the average holder’s profit returns to its long-term norm. Buyers from one to two years earlier, who entered near the top of the range, also approach break-even around that price.
On the downside, the True Market Mean at $77,000 is the report’s main support reference. These levels help frame the recovery, and institutional demand is another part of that picture; Bitcoin’s institutional-demand outlook offers related context for assessing the role of inflows.
Data indicated that long-term-holder MVRV stayed above 1 during the current cycle. There is still evidence that selling pressure has been restrained. Weekly realized profit during the current run is a fraction of the amounts recorded at the 2024 and 2025 tops, even though almost all short-term holders are back in profit.
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Bitcoin Price Recovery Faces a Defined Test
The next major test is at $95,000–$97,000, where options positioning and the mean MVRV price converge. Positive gamma around the $95,000 strikes reached its highest reading on the report’s chart, while negative gamma built between spot and $92,000. Dealer hedging can accelerate price moves between spot and $92,000, then tend to dampen them near $95,000.
Demand indicators have improved, but they do not settle the question of continuation. US spot ETFs recorded about $1.3 billion in inflows over the five days after the squeeze began, following two weeks of net outflows. Meanwhile, 24-hour spot volume more than doubled from its August trough, rising 121% since the rally began, although its seven-day average remained about 30% below its level a year earlier.
Those conditions support the recovery narrative. A move below $84,000 would put the $77,000 True Market Mean back in view, while a sustained break through $95,000–$97,000 would test the overhead resistance cluster. Broader October resistance and macro catalysts also shape the market’s risk-reward, as covered in Bitcoin’s October price outlook.
The defensible conclusion is narrower than the headline claim: this cycle avoided a negative aggregate NUPL reading and a daily close below Realized Price, while profit taking remained light and ETF inflows and spot volume recovered.
Holding above $84,000 keeps the path toward $96,700 open in Glassnode’s framework; a move below $84,000 and then $77,000 would put the recovery in doubt.
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