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Ahmed Barakat
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Wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC have added 113,950 Bitcoin since July 15, lifting their combined holdings 2.22% to 5.24 million BTC, according to Santiment. The accumulation run coincides with Bitcoin price briefly tapping $87,000 earlier this week before retracing and stabilizing near $84,000.
Is this durable demand building a base for a breakout, or is it a squeeze-driven bounce that stalls the moment leverage unwinds?
Not everyone is convinced this move reflects a genuine shift in risk appetite. Trace Finance co-founder Bernardo Brites says that the speed of the recovery was partly a function of a short squeeze, and that the bigger question is where the new money is actually coming from.
“I wouldn’t read this as a broad return of risk appetite. Bitcoin rallying through a rate hike, $100 oil, and elevated yields suggests some investors are treating it as a hedge against inflation, fiscal and geopolitical risk rather than as a bet on easy money,” Brites said.
That framing matters for anyone reading the current resistance structure as a clean technical setup rather than a macro hedge trade layered on top of one.
Santiment has tracked this 100-to-1,000-BTC wallet cohort for five years, and its activity has historically aligned closely with market direction. Periods of heavy accumulation have often preceded or coincided with stronger price moves. The current data shows the cohort continued buying through the recovery, which at minimum indicates the rally isn’t being carried by retail flow alone.
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What Bitcoin Needs to Breach the $88,000-$90,000 Resistance?
The technical picture underneath the whale and ETF data is straightforward. Bitcoin reclaimed its 365-day moving average near $80,500, a level it last broke back above in March 2023 – a move that preceded a much larger rally at the time. It also cleared the $76,000-$81,000 supply band that had capped price action for weeks.
| Level | Price Zone | Significance |
| 365-day moving average | ~$80,500 | Reclaimed; last similar break preceded a 2023 rally leg |
| Cleared supply zone | $76,000-$81,000 | Heavy overhead supply absorbed on the move up |
| Next resistance test | $88,000-$90,000 | Large BTC concentration is the next major hurdle for the rally |
That $88,000-$90,000 Bitcoin price band matters specifically because of where the coin supply sits, not because of round-number psychology. A large concentration of Bitcoin clustered in that range means sellers are likely to show up in size the closer the price gets to it, which is exactly why the $90,000 target is treated as the next real test.
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ETF Demand at the Bitcoin Price Resistance Test
The two-sided framing gives traders a concrete way to read what happens next rather than guessing. A continuation of ETF inflows alongside renewed stablecoin supply growth would, in our view, build a stronger base under the rally as it approaches resistance. A stall in either, particularly a fade in ETF demand while price sits below $88,000, leaves the move vulnerable to giving back gains as leveraged positioning unwinds.
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju has separately argued this cycle is more likely to produce a 3-to-5x rally than a repeat of past 10x blow-offs, citing a maturing market and growing institutional participation as dampeners on extreme volatility.
That view doesn’t confirm where Bitcoin goes after $90,000; it simply lowers the bar for what counts as a strong outcome this cycle, a distinction worth keeping in mind while watching the longer-term structural recovery play out against this specific resistance test.
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