- The latest New York Times/Siena College poll shows Trump leading Biden 48%-44% among likely voters.
- The numbers show Biden lagging not only with his 2020 supporters but also female voters.
- Biden also has to overcome doubts about the economy, as 50% of voters in the poll called it “poor.”
Eight months ahead of the general election, President Joe Biden remains in a precarious position as he continues to trail former President Donald Trump in a rematch among likely voters, according to the latest New York Times/Siena poll.
Amid Biden’s polling troubles, two significant things stand out in the Times/Siena survey: Biden is currently losing a bloc of supporters who backed him in the 2020 election and he is virtually tied with Trump among women, a key group that backed him by 11 points that year.
Overall, Trump led Biden among likely voters 48% to 44% in the Times/Siena survey.
And despite former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley’s primary campaign against Trump, where she’s been able to win over a chunk of GOP voters while arguing that the party needs new leadership, 97% of voters who backed the former president in 2020 say they’ll do so again this year, per the survey.
However, Biden is only retaining 85% of voters who backed him in the 2020 election in the survey, with 9% of the president’s 2020 supporters indicating that they’ll support Trump this fall.
In an election that could be decided by close margins in a handful of swing states, any slight defection or bump in support could prove decisive for each of the contenders.
Women, who backed Biden by a 55% to 44% margin in 2020, were key to his election, along with Democratic candidates across the country as the party held the House that year and regained control of the Senate in January 2021.
In the Times/Siena poll, Trump led Biden among women by a 47% to 46% margin among likely voters. Meanwhile, men backed Trump over Biden 49% to 42%.
One of Biden’s biggest challenges in this election is his messaging on the economy. While the president has touted strong jobs growth and low unemployment, inflation during much of the COVID-19 pandemic ate into the pocketbooks of Americans and many voters remain pessimistic about the country’s economic fortunes.
In the Times/Siena poll, 50% of likely voters rated the economy as “poor,” while only 28% of voters rated it as “good” or “excellent.” A little over one in five voters (22%) labeled the economy as “only fair.”
There were some positive signs in the poll for Biden, though.
He had a 13-point lead (54%-41%) with voters aged 18-29, a group that has been especially critical of his handling of the Israel-Hamas war. However, Biden will still have to work to make up ground with this group, as they backed him by 24 points (60%-36%) in 2020.
The poll also showed Biden ahead among suburban voters, a key group that will play a significant role in races up and down the ballot.
Among this group, Biden led Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters.
