Investing.com — Mexico’s central bank, Banxico, has unanimously agreed to a 25 basis point cut in its interest rate, bringing it down to 10.00%.
The decision indicates that the bank’s easing cycle will persist in the upcoming months. The future direction of this easing cycle, however, will significantly depend on the performance of the Mexican peso.
The decision to reduce the interest rate was widely anticipated. Out of 23 analysts surveyed by LSEG Data & Analytics, 21, including the surveyors themselves, correctly predicted the 25 basis point cut.
The remaining two analysts had anticipated a larger 50 basis point reduction. The decision to further relax monetary policy was largely influenced by the decrease in inflation in November to 4.6% year over year, coupled with the relative stability of the peso following the US election.
The statement accompanying the rate cut decision delivered a blend of messages. The bank’s policymakers pointed out a “greater persistence in services inflation”, leading them to revise their inflation forecasts upwards.
Inflation is now projected to align with the target in the third quarter of 2026, a shift from the fourth quarter of 2025 as previously estimated. The board perceives the risks as “biased to the upside”, with the potential implementation of tariffs on US imports from Mexico adding to the uncertainty.
However, the policymakers also hinted at the possibility of “larger downward adjustments” due to the progress made on disinflation. The implementation of these adjustments will largely depend on the performance of the peso, particularly if Mexico faces US import tariffs under the Trump administration.
A significant drop in the peso could cause the policymakers to halt their easing cycle.
“But we doubt that Banxico will step up the pace of easing anytime soon. With the peso vulnerable to sharp falls if Trump slaps tariffs on Mexico, fiscal risks lingering and the Fed in a hawkish mood, we think that Banxico will continue to cut its policy rate in 25bp steps,”
Kimberley Sperrfechter, economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note.
“Our forecast for the policy rate to be lowered to 8.50% by end-25 lies above the consensus. And, if anything, the risks to that forecast lie to the upside, especially if Trump imposes tariffs and the peso falls sharply.”
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