Candidates: Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, Republican Nick Begich, Democrat Eric Hafner and Alaska Independence Party candidate John Wayne Howe
Ad spending since Labor Day: $15.7 million for Democrats, $11.9 million for Republicans
Past results: Peltola won the special election to succeed the late Republican Rep. Don Young in August 2022, and then was elected to a full term later that year. She prevailed over former Republican Gov. Sarah Palin, 55 percent to 45 percent, in the final round of ranked choice voting.
2020 presidential result: Former President Donald Trump defeated President Joe Biden by 10 points.
Cook Political Report rating: Toss-up
Some background: Alaska is just one of two states nationwide that currently use ranked choice voting, in which voters rank candidates in order of preference instead of just picking one. If no candidate receives a majority of first-place votes, the remaining ballots are reallocated from the lowest-performing finishers to second or third choices until one hopeful secures more than half the vote.
That system was first enacted in the state in 2022, when Peltola became the first Democrat to represent Alaska in the House in decades. Ranked choice voting has become a favorite of election reformers looking for ways to boost less extreme office-seekers, though some Republicans blamed the system for their loss in the midterms. Specifically, they highlighted that there were two Republicans (Palin and Begich, who came in third) on the Alaska ballot that year, which they argued led to Republicans splitting their votes.
To avoid that scenario, national Republicans rallied behind one candidate — Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom — ahead of the primary. Begich, who is running again after losing in the midterms, vowed to drop out of the race if he came in behind Dahlstrom in the top-four primary, but she made no such commitment. Begich ended up finishing ahead of her, and the lieutenant governor ultimately dropped out with Republicans rallying behind Begich.
The GOP now has its preferred scenario: One Republican on the ballot, two Democrats and a third-party candidate. Democrats unsuccessfully tried to get Hafner, the other Democrat, off the ballot, pointing to the fact that he is from New Jersey and is serving a decades-long sentence in federal prison.
The state of play: Polling is sparse in this race. A recent internal survey conducted for Begich and the National Republican Campaign Committee shows Begich with a lead over Peltola in all rounds of ranked choice voting. Outside groups on both sides of the aisle are spending heavily in the race.
Why you should care: Peltola is just one of five House Democrats in a seat that Trump won in 2020. Republicans see it as one of their best pickup opportunities to grow their slim majority in the House.
It also could be one of the last elections with ranked choice voting in Alaska, as a measure is on the ballot this year to repeal the system.
The candidates: When Peltola was first elected in 2022, she became the first Alaska Native elected to Congress, as well as the first woman elected to represent the state in the House. Prior to Congress, she was a state legislator and executive director of the Kuskokwim River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission.
Begich is a businessperson. His family is well-known in Alaska politics; Begich’s grandfather was the last Democrat before Peltola to represent the state in the House.
The issues: Like in her previous campaigns, Peltola is running on a message of “fish, family and freedom.” She has touted her support of the Willow Project — including pressuring Biden to back it — and the jobs that come along with it. Peltola and her allies have also attacked Begich for his time running businesses, including “shipping Alaska jobs overseas.”
Begich and his allies have emphasized his business background, and have sought to tie Peltola to Biden, specifically her comments saying his “mental acuity is very, very on.” They have also accused her of not supporting veterans, who make up a significant share of the population in the state. Additionally, Begich’s supporters are encouraging voters to not rank Peltola on the ballot — an acknowledgement of the ranked choice voting system.
Every day POLITICO will highlight one race to watch. Yesterday’s: Nebraska Senate.
