Streaming and network giants like Amazon, Disney, NBCUniversal, and Paramount will gather in New York this week to parade their best programming in front of ad buyers, in hopes of securing big commitments.
One thing everyone’s sure to be whispering about: YouTube’s growing dominance in the living room.
The platform’s success on bigger screens has been well documented. Now, the economic uncertainty rattling markets is making YouTube increasingly attractive to advertisers. MoffettNathanson analyst Michael Nathanson recently predicted that YouTube would be the biggest media company in the world by revenue this year, surpassing Disney.
At the TV upfronts this week, streaming giants and traditional networks will try to prove they can deliver the same value and flexibility as YouTube — and remind advertisers about areas like sports where they are still dominant.
“YouTube has been the beneficiary of tremendous growth in streaming and also in ad spend, and it has done that without a formula that’s dependent on premium content,” said Christopher Vollmer, a partner at the talent agency UTA and managing director of its media consultancy MediaLink.
“It’s giving the buying entities — the agencies and the brands — a lot of what they look for: Scaled media consumption, on a big screen, looks like TV, and all the bells and whistles in terms of the performance metrics of digital,” Vollmer added.
TV players are taking a page from YouTube
As the impact of tariffs and declining consumer confidence threatens advertisers’ spending plans, a key theme of this year’s upfronts will be flexibility, ad buyers said.
Digital players like YouTube are well-positioned in this sort of environment because online ads tend to be easier to switch on and off as required. TV networks, for whom the upfronts were created to lock in ironclad spending commitments, will begrudgingly have to accept the current reality.
“Clients want to feel like they are putting money into the marketplace, but if they need to pivot in any way, that they have the ability to do so without penalties,” said Jessie Schwartzfarb, an EVP at the media agency Dentsu Media US.
In their pitches, TV players are acting a little more like YouTube, industry insiders said. Their presentations are likely to hammer home how they’re matching the tech giant’s adtech and data chops.
Given the macro environment and the decline of linear TV viewing, there’s no escaping that the upfronts will probably be a buyer’s market this year. An EMARKETER forecast estimated that tariffs could drag down the upfronts TV haul by as much as $4.1 billion, a 23.5% decline from last year.
The so-called scatter market — TV ad inventory that’s not purchased during the upfronts, and which typically sells at rates around 30% to 40% more — is already soft, said Ed Papazian, founder of MediaDynamics, a media research and consulting company.
“The fly in the ointment right now is the erratic behavior of the government — the tariffs — which is making it difficult to predict the economic picture for the full year next season,” Papazian said.
MrBeast vs sports
YouTube, which will host its own Brandcast sales event during the upfronts, will return to the stage with its biggest star: MrBeast. It’s also promoting opportunities for advertisers to own the conversation around cultural events like the Masters and the Met Gala and work more closely with creators.
Despite its rise, YouTube isn’t a must-buy for all TV advertisers. Some are still befuddled by its breadth and see it as downmarket.
“The tension is really still — I don’t know if my ad will show up on something amateur,” an exec at a major ad agency said.
Another area of weakness for YouTube is sports. Sure, YouTube has the NFL’s Sunday Ticket. But the TV companies will certainly remind buyers that there’s no better place to reach large, captive audiences than with tentpole live sports like the Super Bowl and the Olympics.
“I got one word for you today: sports,” said Michael Kassan, a longtime ad industry player, riffing on the famous advice a young Dustin Hoffman’s character got in “The Graduate.” “That’s what’s selling. And I got two words for you: women’s sports.”
NBCUniversal plans to emphasize in its pitch that it’ll own nearly 40% of big event viewership in the US, with 129 nights of live sports in primetime from 2025 to 2026. Upfront attendees can expect to see personalities representing the NBA, Super Bowl LX, and the 2026 Milan Cortina Winter Olympics take the stage. Paramount will also lean on its extensive sports offering, with appearances by its on-air talent.
Disney is going for an intimate show that emphasizes the famous IP that only the Mouse House has, like the Marvel Cinematic Universe, said Bill Skrief, who runs DeadLizard with Todd Reinhart, a creative agency whose clients include Disney.
Papazian said TV networks may also look to bundle their broadcast, cable, and streaming holdings as one package to advertisers in order to regain some leverage.
Everyone’s touting their creator relationships
The line between digital and TV in the ad market is increasingly blurring.
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In years past, TV companies focused their upfront events simply on the programming and the celebrities, but they are now devoting more stage time to the under-the-hood tech. On the flipside, YouTube, streamers, and tech platforms are attempting to prove they’ve moved beyond “video” to premium TV.
Legacy TV companies have also sought to deepen their relationships with creators. Last week, for example, NBCUniversal announced four scripted series on its streaming service Peacock featuring “self-made social media stars.”
Ed East, CEO of the influencer marketing agency Billion Dollar Boy, said TV networks are increasingly exploring partnerships where advertisers co-produce creator-led content.
“These are sophisticated, commercially-driven operations, and TV networks are responding,” East said.
Who will come out on top this year?
Katie Klein, chief investment officer of the media agency Omnicom Media Group North America, said the winner of the upfronts will be whoever best combines digital and TV strengths.
“I don’t think there’s a clear winner yet, but I do think that this year’s upfront will certainly help us to determine who’s coming out ahead,” Klein said.
