A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland
A gradual tick lower in currency markets would not normally ruffle many feathers, but the yen’s tentative foray to the cusp of 152 per dollar for the first time since 1990 was enough to draw immediate warnings from Japan’s finance minister of “decisive steps” to tame “disorderly” moves.
The last time he used those words was before the central bank intervened in late 2022 to prop up the yen.
The trigger for the yen’s slight depreciation was likely comments from Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura, who advocated moving “slowly but steadily toward policy normalisation” – emphasis on the slowly – following the central bank’s first rate hike since 2007 made last week.
Several other central bankers take to the podium during the day, and Sweden’s Riksbank announces a policy decision, meaning more market-jarring commentary from policymakers can’t be ruled out.
The Riksbank is widely expected to hold rates steady at this meeting, but traders will be hoping for hints on whether a cut is coming in June, or even earlier.
Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on the economic outlook at an Economic Club of New York reception.
European Central Bank board member Piero Cipollone gives a speech on monetary policy followed by Q&A at the House of the Euro in Brussels.
And Swiss National Bank Vice Chairman Martin Schlegel speaks on where next for policy, after the monetary authority surprised with a rate cut last week.
Meanwhile, stock markets continued to display the choppy, directionless trade that the end of a quarter tends to bring – particularly when it finishes with a key U.S. inflation reading and a speech from the Fed chief on Good Friday, when most markets are closed for holidays.
A tick up in U.S. stock futures may be the most accurate indicator for European equity direction, with Asian markets polarized by a rising and falling Chinese indexes.
Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:
-Riksbank policy decision
-France consumer confidence (March), unemployment (Feb)
-Spain CPI (March), retail sales (Feb)
