Why the US Government Is Increasingly Likely to Shut Down Next Week

As of now, the US government is on track to shut down next week.

Republicans and Democrats haven’t agreed on a plan to fund the federal government past Tuesday, September 30, when current funding expires.

That means federal employees may be forced to work without pay (or fired), national parks and museums could close, and other important government functions could be suspended.

Here’s how we got here — and what could happen next.

Government funding requires agreement between the two parties

Republicans control the House, the Senate, and the presidency — but they can’t fund the government through GOP votes alone.

That’s because in the Senate, most major bills require at least 60 votes to pass due to the “filibuster.” There are only 53 Republican senators, so they need Democratic votes to pass a government funding bill.

Both parties want to pass a short-term funding bill to give Congress more time to pass full government funding bills for next year.

Yet they remain at an impasse.

Democrats, under pressure from their base, are eager to use the process to extract concessions from Republicans — or at least demonstrate a willingness to fight.

Meanwhile, Republicans have refused to negotiate with Democrats, despite the need to earn their votes.

That refusal includes President Donald Trump, who cancelled a meeting with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries that had been slated for Thursday.

“If it has to shut down, it’ll have to shut down,” Trump told reporters on Friday, saying that Democrats are “the ones that are shutting down the government.”

Democrats and Republicans have competing funding proposals

As of now, there are two competing proposals to fund the government and avert a shutdown.

The Republican bill would continue government funding at current levels through November 21, along with an increase in security funding for lawmakers in the wake of the killing of Charlie Kirk.

The Democratic bill would fund the government through October 31, and includes several provisions that Republicans are unlikely to accept, including a reversal of Medicaid cuts enacted in the “Big Beautiful Bill” and a permanent extension of government subsidies that support the Affordable Care Act.

If the Medicaid cuts proceed and the subsidies are not extended, millions of Americans are projected to lose their health coverage in the coming years.

Earlier this month, the GOP funding bill passed the House largely along party lines but stalled in the Senate, failing to reach the necessary 60 votes to pass.

The Democratic bill only received a vote in the Senate, where it also failed.

What happens when the government shuts down

It’s still somewhat unclear what will happen if the government shuts down next week.

While funding runs out for much of the government, programs funded through so-called “mandatory spending,” including Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, will continue to be funded.

Federal employees are not paid for the duration of the shutdown, though they’re guaranteed to receive backpay once it’s over. Some workers could be “furloughed” — essentially placed on a leave of absence — while others will be forced to continue to work.

The Trump administration has signaled that there could be more mass firings if the government shuts down. Some top Democrats have been dismissive, calling it an “attempt at intimidation” while noting that Trump has already fired hundreds of thousands of people.

The administration has broad discretion in how the federal government operates under a shutdown, but aside from the potential firings, it has not yet laid out what will happen.

During previous shutdowns, national parks and museums have been forced to shutter. With air traffic controls and TSA employees working without pay, flight delays are possible.

There’s also an economic impact: The Congressional Budget Office estimated that during a five-week shutdown that ended in early 2019, real gross domestic product was reduced by $3 billion.