As Nikki Haley stumps across South Carolina to win her home state’s GOP presidential primary against former President Donald Trump on Saturday, she has campaigned heavily across the Lowcountry — the swath of the state’s coastal region known for its picturesque landscape and its more moderate brand of Republicanism.
But in the state where Haley once served as governor, she has trailed Trump by sizable margins in most polling. And in the Lowcountry, normally a place where she’d have more support, Trump’s sway over much of the party has left her with fewer voters, even among some of the same people who helped elect her governor.
Haley will have to run the table in the Lowcountry to have a chance at defeating Trump in Saturday’s primary, but here’s why that will be more difficult than ever to pull off.
All politics is local? Not this year.
Over the years, Charleston and the Lowcountry have produced high-profile GOP figures like Sen. Tim Scott, Rep. Nancy Mace, and former Gov. Mark Sanford.
But it’s Trump’s influence that has become the dominant force among Republicans in the state, to the point where Haley’s conservative record as governor — cultivating economic development in the state and fighting back against then-President Barack Obama’s administration on issues like immigration — has faded in the memories of voters.
Scott, who unsuccessfully ran for president last year, was appointed to the Senate by Haley in 2013. But even he endorsed Trump. Mace is backing the former president as well.
Haley in the past month campaigned in Bluffton and Hilton Head Island, two Lowcountry locales. And in recent days, she spoke to voters in Beaufort and Kiawah Island, also in the Lowcountry.
But Trump remains in the driver’s seat in the state.
The most recent Emerson College/The Hill survey found Trump ahead of Haley 58%-35%, a 23-point lead over the former governor among registered voters. A Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll among likely GOP voters had Trump leading Haley 63%-35%, a 28-point spread. And a recent Citadel Poll showed Trump leading Haley 64%-31% statewide, with the former president boasting a 54%-41% advantage in the Charleston area.
While Haley retains some degree of popularity in her home state overall, Trump is a much more popular figure among GOP voters — buoyed by his focus on issues like immigration.
This dynamic has made Haley’s focus on her record a tougher sell, even as she remains ideologically aligned with many South Carolina conservatives.
The Lowcountry has become more conservative
Republicans in the Lowcountry have long been associated with the “country club” set, who hold conservative views on fiscal matters but are less wedded to social issues.
In recent years, however, the political identity of the Lowcountry has changed, with significant population growth that’s brought in more military veterans and retirees to the region.
In places like Berkeley and Dorchester counties, strident conservatives have become more prominent forces within the GOP.
And that influence has affected the primary in a critical way.
While Haley is a familiar face to countless South Carolinians, there are now legions of new voters who didn’t live in the state when she was governor and have no political allegiance to her.
For many GOP voters, Trump is who they know best. And as the South Carolina primary ends Saturday night, that sentiment is Haley’s biggest impediment to a victory.
