Why EU capitals are still arguing over more military aid to Ukraine

Good morning. To start: Foreign investors, hedge funds and brokers are already scoping out trades on Russian bonds and the rouble, in a bet that Donald Trump’s rapprochement with Vladimir Putin will send a wave of capital rushing back into Russia’s economy.

Today, I unpack why EU capitals aren’t willing to agree on a formal target for Ukraine aid, and big businesses tell our tech correspondent they want an EU “sovereign infrastructure fund”.

Russia vs Ukraine: is this the final reckoning? Join our experts on March 27 at 1pm GMT for a special subscriber webinar. Register for free.

Doubling down?

Four months on from the election of US President Donald Trump on a pledge of suspending military aid to Ukraine, and two weeks on from him actually doing it, EU capitals are still bickering over a plan for them to step up and provide more themselves.

Context: The EU provided around €20bn in military aid to Ukraine in 2024. Even as US-led peace talks aim to reach a rapid ceasefire, Russian troops continue to advance in eastern Ukraine as Kyiv struggles with a shortage of weapons, particularly artillery and air and missile defence systems.

For weeks, EU diplomats have squabbled over a proposal from the bloc’s chief diplomat Kaja Kallas to put a figure on what they will collectively provide this year. The bloc’s 27 national foreign ministers meet in Brussels today, seemingly to squabble some more.

The biggest obstacle to Kallas’s proposal to at least match last year’s total — or better still, double it to €40bn — is the unwillingness of some larger countries to commit to figures proportional to their economic size.

The imbalance of support to Ukraine among EU economies is striking. While Germany, the EU’s biggest economy, is also its biggest military donor since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, the next largest are Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden.

Indeed, Denmark (6mn people, GDP of €373bn) has provided more military aid to Ukraine than France, Italy and Spain combined (174mn people, GDP of €7tn).

At a summit of EU leaders on March 6, all bar Hungary’s Viktor Orbán signed up to the convoluted statement of “welcom[ing] the readiness of Member States to urgently step up efforts to address Ukraine’s pressing military and defence needs”.

That’s part of a promise to turn Ukraine into a “steel porcupine” with enough weapons to resist future invasion.

But proponents of the Kallas plan argue that will only work if capitals are held to fixed military support targets.

“Everyone is happy to commit to ‘step up’ and to pledge unwavering support,” said one senior EU diplomat involved in preparations for today’s ministerial. “But many are not willing to commit to how.”

At a meeting of ambassadors on Friday, two-thirds gave their support to Kallas’s plan. She’ll be hoping to win over a few more ministers today, with the debate then shifting to another leaders’ summit on Thursday.

Chart du jour: Peace dividend

Europe has saved hundreds of billions of euros a year in recent decades — this benign state of affairs is now over. Find out how government cuts could contribute to increased defence spending here.

Tech support

Proton, Airbus and dozens of other European businesses and associations are urging Brussels to invest more in the bloc’s digital infrastructure, writes Barbara Moens.

Context: Europe is waking up to its heavy reliance on American digital infrastructure and services. Just as the bloc wants to invest more in its own security and economic competitiveness, there are growing calls to focus on tech sovereignty, for which digital infrastructure is key.

“Europe needs to recover the initiative and become more independent across all layers of its critical digital infrastructure,” the businesses and associations wrote in a letter to European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and its tech chief Henna Virkkunen, seen by the Financial Times.

“Time is of the essence and industry is prepared to invest if there are conditions for viable returns,” they added.

The groups are pushing for a “sovereign infrastructure fund” to support areas such as quantum computing and chips, which require high investments. They also argue that public investment should focus on European producers, helping to boost demand for EU tech suppliers.

The letter follows a series of earlier initiatives to support Europe becoming more self-reliant when it comes to digital and tech, such as Eurostack, which aims to create a European tech infrastructure.

However, critics argue such initiatives are costly and time-intensive and that the bloc is better off focusing on a number of specific tech industries where it has a better chance to catch up, such as artificial intelligence.

What to watch today

1. EU foreign ministers meet.

2. EU energy ministers meet.

3. UK minister for EU relations Nick Thomas-Symonds speaks at the UK-EU Parliamentary Partnership Assembly in Brussels.

Now read these