Who Will Win an Oscar, According to Kalshi and Polymarket

The 98th Academy Awards are coming up, and for prediction market bettors, tens of millions of dollars are on the line.

Since the nominees were announced on January 22, bettors on Polymarket and Kalshi have been wagering on which films, actors, directors, and more will claim the Oscar in each of the Academy’s 24 categories.

Prediction markets have experienced dramatic growth over the last year, drawing the attention of media companies, the ire of some state regulators, and the scrutiny of Washington lawmakers.

In January, Polymarket partnered with the Golden Globes, and bettors on the site ultimately correctly predicted the winner in 26 out of 28 categories.

The Oscars, hosted this year by Conan O’Brien, will air on Sunday, March 15, on ABC and Hulu.

If bettors are correct, “Sinners” will take home four Oscars, while both “One Battle after Another” and “Frankenstein” are each set to win three.

Where the odds stand for each category, as of late January

Best Picture — “One Battle After Another”

Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” is the odds-on favorite to win best picture, standing at 67% among bettors on both Polymarket and Kalshi.

The next most likely winner is Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” which each platform gives a roughly 24% chance.

Bettors have wagered more than $10 million on the Best Picture winner across the two platforms, the most of any category.

Best Director — Paul Thomas Anderson

The director of “One Battle After Another” is seen as the overwhelming favorite to win best director, with Kalshi and Polymarket pegging his chances of winning in the mid-to-high 80s.

Best Actor — Timothée Chalamet

Chalamet, the lead actor in “Marty Supreme,” is the favorite to win best actor. Both platforms put his odds in the mid-70s.

Best Actress — Jessie Buckley

According to bettors, Buckley — the lead actress in “Hamnet” — is overwhelmingly likely to win best actress, garnering 88-89% on both prediction markets.

Best Cinematography — “Sinners”

The supernatural horror film “Sinners” is the overwhelming favorite to win best cinematography, with bettors on both Kalshi and Polymarket giving the movie a roughly 66% chance of winning.

Best Production Design — “Frankenstein”

At more than 80%, bettors on both prediction market platforms give “Frankenstein” an overwhelming chance of winning the award for best production design.

Best Adapted Screenplay — “One Battle After Another”

In addition to best picture, “One Battle After Another” is seen as overwhelmingly likely to win best adapted screenplay. The movie currently has a 90% chance of winning on both platforms.

Best Sound — “F1”

Apple’s sports drama film F1 is the overwhelming favorite to win best sound, according to bettors.

Both platforms give the movie a better than 80% chance of winning.

Best Animated Short Film — “Butterfly”

Bettors are less certain who will win the award for best animated short film.

“Butterfly,” a 15-minute film by director Florence Miailhe, has a roughly 40% chance on both platforms.

But not far behind is “The Girl Who Cried Pearls,” a 17-minute short film, which bettors give between a 26% and 30% chance of winning.

Best Live Action Short Film — “Two People Exchanging Saliva”

The French-language short film “Two People Exchanging Saliva” narrowly leads among bettors, garnering a 57% chance of winning on Kalshi and a 34% chance on Polymarket.

Another major contender is “Friend of Dorothy,” a British short comedy drama film that has a 28% chance on Kalshi and a 22% chance on Polymarket.

Additionally, the musical short comedy film “The Singers” has a 24% chance on Polymarket and a 14% chance on Kalshi.

Best Film Editing — “One Battle After Another”

The film leads the odds for best film editing winner, with a roughly 60% chance on both platforms.

Best Original Score — “Sinners”

“Sinners” is the overwhelming favorite to win best original score, with bettors on both Kalshi and Polymarket giving the film a more than 85% chance of winning.

Best Original Song — “Golden”

“Golden,” the viral hit from the film “KPop Demon Hunters,” is the odds-on favorite to win best original song, with bettors on both platforms putting the odds of the track’s victory in the mid-to-high 80s.

Best Supporting Actor — Stellan Skarsgård

Stellan Skarsgård, who plays an estranged father in the Norwegian drama film “Sentimental Value,” is the favorite to win best supporting actor, sporting a roughly 64% chance on both Kalshi and Polymarket.

Best Supporting Actress — Teyana Taylor

Taylor, who portrays Perfidia Beverly Hills in “One Battle After Another,” is the overwhelming favorite to win best supporting actress on both platforms, hovering around 75%.

Best Visual Effects — “Avatar: Fire and Ash”

Bettors believe that James Cameron’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” the third installment in the “Avatar” series, is almost certain to win the award for best visual effects.

The movie’s chances of winning stand at more than 90% on both Kalshi and Polymarket.

Best Original Screenplay — “Sinners”

“Sinners” is the favorite to win best original screenplay, with more than 80% odds on both Kalshi and Polymarket.

Best Documentary Short Film — “All the Empty Rooms”

Bettors on both Kalshi and Polymarket give “All the Empty Rooms” a roughly 55% chance of winning the award for best documentary short film.

The movie follows a journalist and photographer as they memorialize the empty bedrooms of school shooting victims.

Best Documentary Feature Film — “The Perfect Neighbor”

“The Perfect Neighbor,” a documentary about Florida’s “Stand Your Ground” laws, is the odds-on favorite to win best documentary feature film, with bettors on both platforms giving the film a roughly 68% chance.

Best International Feature Film — “Sentimental Value”

“Sentimental Value” is the favorite to win best international feature film, with bettors on Kalshi and Polymarket giving the film 67-70% odds of winning.

Best Costume Design — “Frankenstein”

“Frankenstein” is the overwhelming favorite to win best custom design, sporting roughly 85% odds on both platforms.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling — “Frankenstein”

Similarly, “Frankenstein” is seen as a lock for best makeup and hairstyling, sporting probabilities in the high 80s on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Best Animated Feature Film — “KPop Demon Hunters”

“KPop Demon Hunters” is the prohibitive favorite to win best animated feature film, with a roughly 90% chance on both prediction markets.

Best Casting — “Sinners”

“Sinners” is seen as most likely to win best casting, with Kalshi and Polymarket bettors giving the film a 65% chance of winning.