A reader requests that in the comments, but it is exactly the kind of topic I can tire of. Nonetheless I will jot down a few quick pointers on how I think about it:
1. Downweight almost every opinion you read on Twitter, instead check the Ukrainian bond market. If need be, query with Grok on matters such as this. You can however consider Twitter opinions as sociological data of a sort, so downweight them for truth value but do not ignore them.
2. Look for say commentary from China. They have a stake in the matter, are often quite perceptive, and won’t be trapped by the same ol’ mood affiliations (they do of course have their own).
3. Consult with some friends and contacts involved in Ukraine, with good inside perspectives.
Triangulate and aggregate!
You will end up with something quite different.
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