By Rodrigo Campos and Libby George
NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) – Donald Trump has promised to “drill, baby, drill” to halve energy costs, a plan that sends shivers through the governments of emerging market oil producers anxious about dollar earnings and fills poorer importing countries with hope.
In practical terms, Trump, the incoming president of the world’s biggest oil producer, cannot fully control prices.
The United States has limited influence over producer group OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, and it does not have a state oil company Trump can order to increase output.
But an uncertain economic outlook in the biggest oil consuming countries, notably China, and potential oil oversupply has led investors to hedge their bets on the impact of Trump’s election promise.
“You will have very country-specific problems or challenges with lower oil prices,” said Thomas Haugaard, portfolio manager of emerging market debt with Janus Henderson. “But more than half of the EM investment universe are big importers of oil. There will be winners and losers from that kind of shock.”
Here is a look at countries that could win – or lose – if global oil prices fell to roughly $40 per barrel, just above half current prices.
PRODUCER PAIN
Balance sheets at the world’s producers – including OPEC’s biggest producer Saudi Arabia – would in theory take the biggest hit from lower oil prices.
But the Kingdom (TADAWUL:), with multiple sovereign wealth funds and ready access to global borrowing, is insulated to an extent.
Following the oil price crashes of recent years, Saudi Arabia, along with other Gulf nations, such as the United Arab Emirates, has sought to diversify its economy and nurture local debt markets.
JPMorgan noted, however, a price drop could force it to further scale back megaprojects such as the $500 billion city-of-the-future, NEOM.
For poorer producers, such as Angola, Ecuador and Nigeria, lower prices would be more damaging. Most rely on oil for dollars, and need prices near $100 per barrel to balance budgets.
“They don’t have any savings to fall back on,” said David Rees, senior emerging markets economist with investment firm Schroders (LON:), adding those countries already had debt and limited access to affordable borrowing.
“If you get a big hit to your key revenue, then those kind of big coverages of debts just get worse and worse and worse,” he said.
That pressure also can lead investors to ignore positive stories – such as Nigeria’s sweeping fuel subsidy and foreign exchange reforms, or Angola’s rush to pay down its debts
“When oil prices see this kind of pressure, investors tend to paint all oil-producing countries with the same brush,” said Razia Khan, Standard Chartered (OTC:)’s head of research, Africa and Middle East.
BIG SAVINGS?
For importers, a lower oil price could cut inflation and ease demand for foreign exchange. China spends just under $300 billion importing oil, followed by India at nearly $200 billion.
Smaller importers, including Indonesia, Kenya, Pakistan, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey could also benefit.
“If you put $40 (oil) in and just assume $40 for every day, instead of energy inflation averaging around about zero over the next year or so, it knocked it down to like minus 15,” said Rees of Schroders.
The boon could be bigger for emerging economies that subsidise fossil fuels: Venezuela and Iran spend more than 20% of their GDP on subsidies.
NOTE OF CAUTION
Lower prices alone are no guarantee of economic relief, especially if they are accompanied by the trade war Trump’s threatened tariffs could unleash.
Analysts say that could cut global economic growth and cause a demand shock, with negative ramifications worldwide.
South Africa, a platinum, coal and iron exporter, would fare poorly if global commodity prices fell more widely.
In addition, weaker balance sheets for the world’s richer oil producers could have knock-on effects.
Egypt, Kenya and Pakistan – debt-laden importers that have relied on foreign funding in recent years – would take a hit if Gulf producers, such as the UAE, closed their chequebooks while weathering a price decline.
Lower oil prices could also delay the transition from fossil fuels, damaging the long-term prospects of some emerging market energy importers, as well as adding to costs they face from climate change.
“Meaningfully lower prices can be associated with periods of depressed global economic activity, which is not good for emerging markets,” said Alejo Czerwonko, chief investment officer for emerging markets Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management. “So the reasons behind why prices are lower matter.”
