Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda will hit global growth, economists tell FT polls

Today’s agenda: “Terrorism” in New Orleans; shipowners switch to smaller vessels; gold set to rise higher; what to watch this year; and FT critics pick the hottest tickets of 2025

Good morning, and happy new year. We start 2025 by asking more than 220 economists how growth will be affected by Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda.

What’s the impact of ‘Maganomics’? While his exact plans are still unclear, most respondents expect the president-elect’s protectionist policies to overshadow the benefits of other elements. Many economists in the US also believe the new Trump term will spur inflation and make the Federal Reserve more cautious about cutting interest rates.

However, most economists — including those at the IMF, the OECD and the European Commission — forecast stronger growth in the US than in Europe in 2025. One analyst said Trump’s plans, which include threats of blanket tariffs and mass deportations, may bring some short-term growth but “at the expense of a global slowdown which then will come back and hurt the US later on”.

Why it matters: For the Eurozone, the main concern is about manufacturing, with the car industry in Germany — the region’s biggest economy — especially at risk. Trump’s threat of a 60 per cent levy on China could also raise the prospect of Beijing flooding the region with cheap products. One economist said the UK, though seen as better insulated from tariffs, could be exposed to a “second-round impact” should tariffs weigh on Eurozone growth.

“The Trump administration will be an ‘unpredictability machine’ which will dissuade business and households from taking long-term decisions with ease,” said PwC UK’s chief economist. “This will inevitably have an economic cost.”

Join FT experts on January 23 for a subscriber-only webinar, as they discuss what Trump’s return to the White House means for America and the world. Register for free here. And here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:

• Economic data: The Eurozone, US, France and Germany have manufacturing purchasing managers’ indices, as does the UK, which also has the Nationwide house price index.

• Financial markets: Trading resumes in the US, UK and other countries after yesterday’s break.

For a preview of key events in 2025, check out the latest edition of our Week Ahead newsletter.

Five more top stories

1. The FBI is investigating an “act of terrorism” after a man drove a pick-up truck into a large crowd in the heart of New Orleans yesterday, killing at least 15 people and injuring 35. US President Joe Biden said authorities were also investigating the explosion of a Tesla Cybertruck outside the Trump hotel in Las Vegas to see if the two incidents were related. Read the full story.

2. Shipowners are moving on from the era of ordering ever-larger vessels and switching to smaller crafts instead, according to industry data. The change is being prompted by the rerouting of global trade from China to ports elsewhere in Asia, and the disruption is only expected to continue with Trump’s return to the White House this month.

3. The price of gold is set to climb further in 2025 although the pace of gains is likely to slow after last year’s bumper 27 per cent rally. Analysts surveyed by the Financial Times expect gold to reach about $2,795 per troy ounce by the end of the year, or about 7 per cent above current levels. Here’s why the price of the yellow metal is likely to rise.

4. Exclusive: Job losses at European car part suppliers more than doubled in 2024 as the slowdown in the continent’s automotive industry hit the fortunes of its manufacturing supply chain. Job creation has also slowed and there have been more than 58,000 net job losses across the industry in Europe since 2020.

5. Russian gas flows through Ukraine stopped in the early hours of yesterday after a transit deal between the two countries expired in the wake of Moscow’s full-scale invasion. The pipeline was one of the last two routes still carrying Russian gas to Europe, nearly three years into the full-scale war. EU countries will lose about 5 per cent of gas imports in the middle of winter.

What to watch in 2025

Financial Times reporters consider the rise of “sovereign” artificial intelligence, the prospects for electric car sales and whether the “masters of the universe” will be investing your pension savings, in our survey of business trends in the year ahead.

We’re also reading . . . 

• Crypto’s golden era: The sector expects lighter regulation and wider adoption under Donald Trump, but some worry about systemic risks.

• Solar sector: The industry is facing “a lot of distress” after a collapse in demand triggered a wave of bankruptcies in Germany, its most important European market.

• Financial to-do list: From money-saving work perks to investments and tax planning, Claer Barrett has 10 tips to get your finances in shape this new year.

• ‘Friendshoring’: The ugly, eviscerating saga around Nippon Steel’s takeover bid for US Steel shows why it’s hard to be a friend of America, writes Leo Lewis.

Chart of the day

Nvidia has emerged as a crucial backer of start-ups trying to gain from the artificial intelligence revolution its chips are powering. The semiconductor group has been pumping ever greater sums into some of its own customers, investing $1bn in AI companies in 2024.

Take a break from the news

The FT’s critics pick the most anticipated hot tickets in 2025, from film, theatre, dance and TV to art exhibitions, games, pop and classical music.