Trump says Nato’s Article 5 has ‘numerous definitions’, alarming summit

Today’s agenda: Israel-Iran truce; Russian shadow crypto payments; New York mayoral race; oil markets shrug off Middle East tumult; and St Paul’s Cathedral 350th year in pictures

Good morning. We start with the Nato summit today, as world leaders gathered at The Hague brace themselves for Donald Trump. Here’s what to expect.

What did Trump say? The US president has sparked alarm by telling reporters that Washington’s commitment to Nato’s Article 5, which refers to its mutual defence pact, “depends on your definition”. Trump said there were “numerous definitions” of Article 5. “I’m committed to being their friends. I’m going to give you an exact definition when I get there.”

Why it matters: The US is irreplaceable as a Nato member, with many European countries depending on American arms and intelligence assets. The summit rests on what Trump decides, officials say, with the entire meeting “carefully choreographed” to avoid provoking him. Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte has also praised Trump for making Europe “pay in a BIG way”, referring to a defence spending target of 5 per cent of GDP. Trump has previously threatened to only defend allies that spend more on defence.

What to look out for: Apart from whether Trump waters down security commitments for Europe, Spain’s resistance to spending more on defence has also undermined efforts among Nato members to show unity. While many allies including Germany, France and the UK have committed to meeting Trump’s new target, Spain has secured an opt-out, increasing the likelihood of a clash at the summit. Trump has called it a “problem” and said it was “very unfair to the rest of the people”.

Here’s more on what to expect at today’s gathering.

• Europe shouldn’t go it alone: Working on defence production together with the US is vital to mutual security, writes former US defence secretary Lloyd Austin.

And here’s what else we’re keeping tabs on today:

• Economic data: France has its consumer confidence survey for this month.

• Results: Babcock, General Mills, Halfords, Liontrust and Micron report earnings.

• Glastonbury: The largest greenfield music and performing arts festival in the world begins in Somerset, England.

Join FT experts and guests for a subscriber-only webinar at 1pm BST today as they discuss the Middle East conflict and what it means for the world. Register for free.

Five more top stories

1. The US air strikes on Iran set back Tehran’s nuclear progress by less than six months, according to an early US intelligence assessment, casting doubt on Trump’s claims that the programme had been “obliterated”. The findings were furiously rejected by the White House, which said they were leaked by “an anonymous, low-level loser in the intelligence community”.

• Fragile truce: The president lashed out at both Israel and Iran as he tried to preserve the shaky ceasefire he brokered in a flurry of telephone diplomacy.

• A new Middle East: The US and Israeli campaign to defang Iran could herald a fresh era of instability for the region.

• The ‘12-day war’: Trump’s evocation of the memory of the six-day war of 1967 is double-edged, writes Gideon Rachman.

2. The UK is set to buy US-made jets that can carry nuclear weapons, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is set to announce today at the Nato summit. Under the plans, Britain will join the military alliance’s airborne nuclear mission, and the 12 F-35 stealth fighters are expected to carry American atomic bombs. Here’s more on the sweeping defence overhaul.

• US-UK ties: A majority of Britons view the US as a “serious threat” to security after the election of Trump, according to a recent survey.

3. Exclusive: A new cryptocurrency token designed to allow cross-border payments in spite of western sanctions on Russia, launched by a fugitive Moldovan oligarch and a Russian defence sector bank, has moved some $9.3bn on a dedicated crypto exchange in just four months since it was launched, the FT has found. Read the full story.

4. Exclusive: EDF could sell some assets under a portfolio review as its boss seeks to meet French government demands to focus on new nuclear reactors. People with knowledge of the matter said Bernard Fontana told insiders he wanted to assess which assets were not profitable or did not fit with the state-owned energy group’s strategic priorities.

5. OpenAI and Sir Jony Ive have been accused of trying to “bury” a rival start-up that forced their $6.4bn AI device venture to pull down marketing materials. The chief executive of iyO said he had been “blindsided” by the launch of io, OpenAI’s partnership with Apple’s former design chief, as both companies had previously been in deal talks with his similarly named start-up.

News in-depth

For at least three decades, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the hardline centres of power that surround him have resisted structural reforms. But the shocking repercussions of Israel and the US’s assault mean that a shift in direction now seems inevitable, analysts say, setting into motion what could be the most consequential changes since the 1979 Islamic revolution.

We’re also reading . . . 

• HSBC: The bank’s latest reorganisation has arguably left it with few options to boost revenue as it faces trade tariffs and lower interest rates.

• Deal hunger: US banking mergers will accelerate over the next year, executives predict, driven by a more favourable approach from regulators.

• Ukrainian refugees: Strong labour markets and policies have helped those fleeing Russia’s invasion to succeed in other countries, writes Sarah O’Connor.

• New York vote: Former governor Andrew Cuomo has conceded to progressive rival Zohran Mamdani, in a mayoral race that has highlighted a rift in the Democratic party.

Chart of the day 

As Iran started firing missiles at a US air base in Qatar on Monday, oil traders responded with remarkable speed — not by buying, but by selling. Many observers were surprised at the speed of the sell-off, in a market that typically surges at any sign of geopolitical strife. Here’s why traders shrugged off the Middle East tumult.

Take a break from the news

To celebrate the 350th anniversary of St Paul’s, the FT’s Charlie Bibby was allowed unprecedented access to its inner workings. Our chief photographer reveals the unsung heroes who make the world-famous London cathedral tick.