Trump Gulf trip promises good news for US business

Hello and welcome to the working week.

The White House spray tan team can rest up. Donald Trump is off to the Gulf states, where the temperature promises to get into the 40s. It’s a part of the world the US president’s family knows well — Eric Trump has been striking business deals for the Trump Organization ahead of his father’s visit, first to Saudi Arabia then Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have already pledged $2tn worth of US investments. Expect details of how those promises turn into dollars to be fleshed out over the coming days. The mood music (at least in the UAE, according to our Gulf business correspondent Chloe Cornish, who is based there) is pro-US business — for evidence, witness Disney’s deal for a park and resort in Abu Dhabi, or BlackRock announcing it would partner with Abu Dhabi conglomerate IHC in an as yet unnamed reinsurance business.

However the geopolitical environment is very different to the first time Trump visited the region during his first presidential term. The Gulf no longer supports a maximum pressure campaign against Iran, having moved to de-escalate tensions with Tehran. And more normalisation deals with Israel, which Trump previously succeeded in getting from the UAE and Bahrain, are far more difficult given the backdrop of what Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has called a “genocide” in Gaza.

Talking of Trump, or rather his tariffs, this week will see the start of the Cannes Film Festival, standing defiant in the face of the US President’s threat of 100 per cent levies on films made outside America to protect Hollywood. Festival president Iris Knobloch has urged the industry not to panic about the US president’s threat in an interview with FT global media editor Daniel Thomas ahead of the event beginning on Tuesday.

Romania will get a new president as it stages an election run-off in what is set to bring victory for the far right, bolstered by the controversial decision to cancel the election previously due to perceived Russian meddling. Ultranationalist George Simion won 41 per cent of the ballots cast on May 4, double as many as his rival Nicuşor Dan, the pro-EU centrist mayor of Bucharest. Here is an FT guide to everything you need to know ahead of Sunday’s decisive vote.

Poland will also begin electing a new head of state on the same day, with a first round of voting. And to complete the triumvirate, Portuguese voters will go to the polls on Sunday after a snap election was called after the ruling coalition lost a confidence vote in March.

The central bankers have made their latest rate calls, now we have inflation updates — the US first on Tuesday, followed by Germany and France. The other economic measure in the spotlight will be growth, with fresh figures from the UK and the EU on Thursday followed a day later by Japan.

Among the themes of the corporate results this week are Asian carmakers, including new Nissan chief Ivan Espinosa presenting full-year figures, and tech: Alibaba, Tencent, Sage, Cisco Systems and Take-Two Interactive Software. More details below.

One more thing . . . 

The UK bathing water season begins on Thursday. Given the parlous state of the country’s waterways, this date may fill many Britons with dread. However, I am a big fan of swimming and I’m now wondering whether open water could be an option this year. I’m not alone according to this FT analysis, though the author did not do it in British waters.

Am I mad? Anyone got any recommendations? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Clare Lombardelli, Bank of England deputy governor, monetary policy, gives a keynote speech at the Bank of England Bank Watchers’ conference 2025 at King’s Business School, London

• Singapore: Vesak Day. Financial markets closed

• UK: CIPD Labour Market Outlook. Also, KPMG and REC UK Report on Jobs

• Results: Asahi Q1, Diversified Energy Q1 trading statement, Fox Q3, Mazda FY, Orix FY, Petrobras Q1, UniCredit Q1

Tuesday

• Norges Bank governor Ida Wolden Bache and Norges Bank Investment Management CEO Nicolai Tangen answer questions from the Storting Standing Committee on Finance and Economic Affairs in Oslo on the management of the Government Pension Fund Global

• UK: May labour market statistics. Also, BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor.

• US: April consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate and real earnings data.

• Results: Bayer Q1, Bytes FY, DCC FY, Ferrovial Q1, Honda FY, Kirin Holdings Q1, K+S Q1, Marston’s HY, Nissan FY, On the Beach HY, Renew Holdings HY, Restore FY, Tata Motors FY, Yamaha Q1

Wednesday

• Sarah Breeden, Bank of England deputy governor, financial stability, gives a keynote speech at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association 39th Annual General Meeting in Amsterdam

• OPEC monthly oil market report

• Germany: April CPI and harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data

• Results: ABN Amro Q1, Alcon Q1, Alstom FY, Brenntag Q1, Burberry FY, Cisco Systems Q3, Commonwealth Bank of Australia Q3 trading update, Compass HY, Conduit Re AGM and Q1 trading update, Daimler Truck Q1, E.ON Q1, Experian FY, Foxconn Q1, Hapag-Lloyd Q1, Imperial Brands HY, KDDI FY, Keller AGM and trading statement, Marshalls AGM and trading statement, Porsche Q1, SMC FY, Sony FY, TP ICAP AGM and Q1 trading update, Telefónica Q1, Tui Q2/HY, Vanquis Banking Group AGM and Q1 trading statement, Victorian Plumbing HY

Thursday

• Swati Dhingra, a member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, speaks at the New Economics Foundation conference, EU macroeconomic policy in an age of shocks, in Brussels

• IEA monthly oil market report

• EU: updated Q1 GDP estimate and employment figures

• France: April CPI inflation rate data

• UK: Q1 GDP estimate

• US: April producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• Results: 3i FY, Alibaba Q4, Allianz Q1, Applied Materials Q2, Auction Technology Group HY, Aviva Q1 trading update, Bertelsmann Q1, Bridgestone Q1, Deere & Co Q2, Deutsche Telekom Q1, Grainger HY, ITV Q1 trading update, Merck Q1, National Grid FY, Premier Foods FY, RWE Q1, Sage HY, Siemens Q2, Take-Two Interactive Software Q4/FY, Tencent Q1, Thyssenkrupp HY, United Utilities FY, Walmart Q1, Watches of Switzerland trading update

Friday

• Germany: Q1 labour market figures

• Italy: April CPI inflation rate data

• Japan: preliminary Q1 GDP estimate

• US: University of Michigan Consumers Survey

• Results: Future HY, Land Securities FY, Swiss Re Q1

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• China: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva begins a two-day state visit

• Philippines: national and local midterm elections

• Taiwan: Center for Asia-Pacific Resilience and Innovation (Capri) annual forum, this year titled Shaping Landscapes Towards a Sustainable Future for the Asia Pacific, in Taipei

• US: Securities and Exchange Commission Crypto Task Force roundtable in Washington, called Tokenization: Moving Assets Onchain: Where TradFi and DeFi Meet, adding to an ongoing discussion about regulating the sector

• US/China: 15th Annual China Business Conference, hosted by the US Chamber of Commerce, begins in Washington, running until Wednesday

Tuesday

• Denmark: Copenhagen Democracy Summit 2025 begins at the Royal Danish Playhouse. The two-day gathering of leaders from business, politics, media and academia will include speeches from former UK prime ministers Boris Johnson and David Cameron and former US House speaker Nancy Pelosi

• France: 78th Cannes film festival begins, running until May 24

• Luxembourg: Council of Europe session of the committee of ministers begins, featuring foreign ministers from all 46 member states. The two-day session will include discussion on support for Ukraine

• Saudi Arabia: US President Donald Trump begins a Middle East tour with a Saudi-US Investment Forum in Riyadh. He will then visit Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, holding bilateral meetings with the countries’ leaders

• UK: legislation to allow terminally ill people to take their own life is being put forward today at the Scottish Parliament by the Liberal Democrat MSP Liam McArthur and will be voted on by MSPs.

Wednesday

• Belgium: Nato Military Committee meeting with chiefs of defence from all 32 allied nations at the military bloc’s headquarters in Brussels

• US: FT Live Brazil Summit, titled Balancing Growth, Sustainability and Global Influence, in New York. Register here for tickets

Thursday

• Nakba Day, marking of the 1948 displacement of Palestinian people

• Paraguay: 75th Fifa Congress, the legislative arm of international football’s governing body, in Asunción. The agenda includes the suspension or expulsion of a member association, Fifa president Gianni Infantino’s address, release of the annual report and the election of various committees

• UK: Bathing water season begins

Friday

Saturday

• Switzerland: Eurovision Song Contest final, held this year in Basel

• UK: FA Cup final kicks off with Crystal Palace competing against Manchester City at Wembley Stadium, concluding the 144th season of the world’s oldest national football competition

Sunday

• Egypt: IMF Middle East and north Africa research conference, co-organised by the IMF and the Onsi Sawiris School of Business at The American University in Cairo, begins

• Poland: presidential election, first round of voting

• Portugal: snap parliamentary elections

• Romania: presidential election run-off