- On Friday, the Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on the TikTok divest-or-ban law.
- TikTok is asking the court to pause its divestment deadline, set for January 19.
- Legal analysts told Business Insider that the company faces an uphill battle.
TikTok is fighting for its life as it faces a possible US ban in a little over a week. Today, it gets to argue its case before the Supreme Court.
The company is challenging a law that compels its Chinese owner, ByteDance, to divest from the US version of TikTok by January 19 or be forced to shut it down. It lost its case in the DC Circuit in December and is now appealing to the Supreme Court for an emergency injunction to pause its divestment deadline.
We’ll post updates on the hearing here as they become available.
TikTok’s prospects of getting more time don’t look great, legal analysts told Business Insider.
Like the DC Circuit, the Supreme Court is likely to show deference to Congress on questions of national security, even in instances where First Amendment rights are at stake.
“It’s going to be an uphill battle,” G.S. Hans, a clinical professor of law at Cornell Law School, told BI. “TikTok lost 3-0 in the DC Circuit. They lost with a cross-ideological panel.”
“If you’re the company, you’re hoping for a change of fortune,” he added. “That’s a tall order because of the general deference on natural security grounds to the political branches from the courts.”
Matthew Schettenhelm, a litigation and policy analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, described TikTok as an underdog in the case, estimating the company has a 30% chance of being rescued by the Supreme Court.
If TikTok fails to win more time through court intervention, its business partners like Apple, Google, and Oracle may cut ties with the app in the US after January 19 to comply with the law. Apple and Google host TikTok in their app stores, while Oracle works with TikTok to store its US user data. None of the three companies responded to requests for comment.
TikTok declined to comment on its plans for operating its app in the US if its appeal fails.
Neama Rahmani, a former federal prosecutor in California, also told BI he expects the court will uphold the TikTok ban law.
Rahmani said the court will likely find the TikTok ban law consistent with other antitrust laws because it forces Bytedance to divest and find a new owner for the company instead of banning the app outright.
“We’re not saying that TikTok isn’t allowed; it just cannot be owned by a Chinese company where the Chinese government has access to this information,” Rahmani said.
Still, Rahmani said one thing TikTok has going for it is that the Supreme Court decided to hear it after the DC Circuit Court decisively upheld the law.
“Four justices agreed to hear this case and to fast-track it, so reading the tea leaves, that is somewhat good for them,” Rahmani said.
Why is TikTok facing a potential ban?
TikTok was included in the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act that passed in April. The act sought to limit the influence of social apps with ties to countries the US deemed a foreign adversary in an effort to guard national-security interests. TikTok’s owner, ByteDance, is headquartered in China, which the US government has called a foreign adversary.
While members of both parties in Congress have raised alarm bells about TikTok, support for a ban among the American public has declined over the last couple of years. Support for a government ban fell from 50% in March 2023 to 32% last July and August among US adults who responded to Pew Research Center surveys.
President-elect Donald Trump may try to save TikTok, as he pledged to do during his campaign run. Trump filed an amicus brief on December 27 asking the Supreme Court to pause the deadline for a TikTok divestment so he could try to negotiate a political resolution once in office.
