Candidates: Rep. Don Bacon (R) vs. state Sen. Tony Vargas (D)
Ad spending since Labor Day: $10.6 million for Democrats, $11.7 million for GOP
Past results: Bacon and Vargas first ran against each other in 2022, with Bacon pulling out a win by less than 3 percentage points.
2020 presidential result: 52.2 percent for Biden, 45.8 percent for Trump
Cook Political Report rating: Toss-up
Some background: Nebraska’s 2nd District is the state’s lone competitive House race. Republicans lead Democrats in voter registration by roughly 13,000 votes, but there’s also a significant number of nonpartisan voters (103,707) in the district. And the Omaha-area seat has a history of ticket-splitting between the presidential election and down ballot, with Bacon knowing he’ll need to pick up Harris voters to win.
The state of play: A spate of recent polling has shown Vargas with a small lead, feeding Democratic hopes. But Republicans still believe Bacon could eke out a win as GOP voters come home in the final weeks — and a steady stream of members of House leadership have come to Omaha to stump with Bacon.
Why you should care: Democrats have long coveted Bacon’s seat and believe they have their best shot to flip it after cycles of near-misses. And underscoring its importance to the larger House map, during a recent swing through the state, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said the district “could very well determine” if Democrats are able to win back control of the House.
Bacon is also one of 17 House Republicans running for reelection in districts won by Biden in 2020, seats that will prove a key measure of how much separation down-ballot races can continue to have from the presidential race.
The candidates: Bacon was first elected to the House in 2016, when Trump also won his district. Since joining the House, he led the small-business minded Main Street Caucus, and has emerged as an outspoken critic of the Freedom Caucus and right flank of the conference. He’s also leaned heavily into his military background and work on the Armed Services Committee.
Vargas, meanwhile, was first elected to the state Legislature in 2016 — Nebraska’s state Legislature is unique because it is a nonpartisan, unicameral body. He was also previously a public school teacher.
The issues: Because Nebraska is only one of two states that splits its Electoral College votes, the battle for the 2nd District’s Electoral College vote is bleeding over into the House race. Bacon has lamented that Trump is being badly outspent by Democrats and Harris in the district, which he worries will increase down-ballot drag.
Beyond the impact of the presidential election, Bacon and Vargas have been sparing over abortion — an issue on which Nebraska has two competing referendums on the ballot — the border and immigration, and trying to sell themselves as the real bipartisan dealmaker in the race.
Every day POLITICO will highlight one race to watch. Yesterday’s: California’s 22nd District.
