A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
After a frenetic first three days of the new Donald Trump presidency, buoyant Wall Street stocks hovered near new record highs – gradually turning attention back to a punchy corporate earnings season and economic updates.
Wednesday’s tech-led jump in U.S. equity indexes, infused by Trump’s plan to boost investment in artificial intelligence and impressive Netflix (NASDAQ:) results, saw the clock a new intraday record and volatility gauges subside to the lowest of the year so far.
Stock index futures stepped back a touch overnight and Treasury yields ticked higher in the renewed “risk on” environment, despite brisk demand for the latest sale of 20-year bonds on Wednesday.
One of the background features of the week so far has been how heavy sovereign debt sales across developed markets have been met with robust orders from investors – easing some early-year fears about government funding. Aside from the 20-year bond sale, bond auctions in Britain, France and elsewhere have been gobbled up by fixed income funds.
Benign inflation readings from the United States, Canada and Europe have helped and, at 46 basis points, the estimated “term premium” embedded in 10-year Treasuries has slipped back to its smallest of the year.
Also helping has been the retreat in oil prices to two-week lows, in part due to Trump’s pro-drilling push. On Monday the new president declared a national energy emergency, aimed at giving him the authority to reduce environmental restrictions on energy infrastructure and projects and ease permitting for new transmission and pipeline builds.
TRUMP TALKS TO DAVOS
There was not much new on Trump’s new tariff push overnight. Despite statements on possible new tariffs on China, the European Union, Canada and Mexico prior pledges on “Day One” hikes have not materialised – leaving the issue lingering over the weeks ahead.
Instead on Wednesday, Trump turned his attention to Russia, saying he would add new tariffs to his sanctions threat against Moscow if the country does not make a deal to end its war in Ukraine.
All eyes will be on Trump’s virtual appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos at 11:00 a.m. ET.
On Wall Street, Thursday brings a return of economic updates after a data-starved week so far, and weekly jobless claims numbers will be watched closely again later, with the first sweep of January business surveys also about to unfold.
The day’s earnings diary is topped by Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:) and General Electric (NYSE:), with markets now bracing for next week’s updates from Big Tech megacaps of the so-called Magnificent Seven.
Overseas, Chinese stocks perked up a bit after Beijing announced further measures on Wednesday to bolster the market there – although tariff threats limited any gains.
Under the plan jointly released by six financial regulators including the securities regulator, big state-owned insurance companies will be directed to raise the size and proportion of their investments in Chinese A-shares traded on the mainland and equity funds.
But overseas appetite for China risk looks tentative at best. More than half the American businesses in China, the most in five years, say they are concerned about a further deterioration in the bilateral relationship between the world’s two largest economies, a survey published on Thursday showed.
In Europe, stocks also retained much of their gains to new records – with another European Central Bank interest rate cut next week now widely expected and ECB officials seemingly comfortable with market pricing for more cuts.
A more hawkish Norwegian central bank held its key policy rates unchanged on Thursday, as expected.
The dollar traded in narrow ranges against major peers.
Japan’s yen was flat at 156.49 per dollar with markets pricing 96% odds of a quarter-point Bank of Japan hike on Friday and seemingly now comfortable with the latest tightening after months of trepidation about the move.
With another month of sub-target inflation recorded last month, the Bank of Canada is also seen as likely to reduce rates by a quarter point next Wednesday
Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Thursday:
* U.S. weekly jobless claims, Kansas City Federal Reserve’s January business survey; euro zone January consumer confidence; Canada November retail sales
* U.S. corporate earnings: Texas Instruments, General Electric, CSX (NASDAQ:), Northern Trust (NASDAQ:), Union Pacific (NYSE:), Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:), McCormick (NYSE:), Elevance
* World Economic Forum in Davos – including Bank of Spain governor Jose Luis Escriva, German Finance Minister Joerg Kukies and Argentina President Javier Milei
(By Mike Dolan, editing by XXXX; mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com)
