- The US wants to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, starting with a 30-day cease-fire.
- As part of a deal, Russia will likely seek sanctions relief.
- Security analysts told BI that Russia could use any sanctions relief to quickly re-arm.
With a 30-day US-brokered cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine on the table, the ball is now in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s court.
As he considers the deal, Putin is likely preparing demands and conditions of his own — and US sanctions relief could be near the top of the list.
US sanctions, imposed by the Biden administration, have dented the Russian economy and weakened its defense sector. President Donald Trump has signaled a willingness to discuss easing sanctions in his pursuit of a peace deal.
But security and economic analysts told Business Insider that Russia would likely try to exploit sanctions relief to rapidly restock crucial US technology for its weapons industry.
“It is unquestionable that Russia will take immediate advantage of any easing in sanctions that allows it to access the components it badly needs to replenish its dilapidated military,” said Tom Keatinge, director of the Royal United Services Institute’s Centre for Finance and Security.
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Biden’s microchip ban
According to Alexander Kolyandr, a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, the lifting of tech sanctions will be near the top of the list for the Kremlin as it approaches negotiations with the US.
“The issue of easing of the sanctions is clearly on the table,” he wrote last week.
US-made microchips are crucial components in items ranging from fridges to planes, as well as military technology such as ballistic missiles and sophisticated drones.
Then-President Joe Biden cut off Russia’s access to US microchips after its 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Since then, Russia has been forced to obtain them through complex black market networks, or through its ally China.
This has left Russia often unable to quickly repair or replace crucial weapons systems destroyed in the war.
Janis Kluge, a senior associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told BI that Russia would be particularly keen to obtain sensors and components for advanced machinery, as well as airplane and drone parts.
“It has been expensive and sometimes impossible for Russia to acquire these parts due to sanctions,” Kluge said.
He added that “Russia knows now what it can’t replace and will make sure to build large stockpiles in case sanctions will be imposed again later on.”
One effect could be to blunt the power of possible future sanctions against Russia, he said.
AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais, File
Putin’s ambitions remain unchanged
The exact shape of a possible Ukraine deal with Russia, and the future status of sanctions, remains unclear.
Last week, Trump threatened to impose tougher sanctions on Russia over its bombardments of Ukraine. But this came after the US president announced the freezing of military aid to Kyiv after a tense Oval Office meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Keatinge warned that whatever form a deal between Trump and Putin over Ukraine might take, the Russian president’s core goal will likely remain unchanged: To rebuild and seize more territory.
Maintaining sanctions is therefore crucial, he said.
“Anyone who thinks that Putin’s aggression in Europe will be satisfied by any sort of deal over Ukraine is sorely mistaken,” Keatinge added. “Appeasing Putin now hastens the possibility that Russian tanks cross the border into the Baltic states and Poland.”
