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Inflation headwinds, higher interest rates, waning savings, and the resumption of student loan payments aren’t deterring Americans from going shopping this year. In fact, they might be encouraging them to do so, with everyone trying to spot a good deal in the current environment. An estimated 182M people across the country are planning to shop in-store and online from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, according to the National Retail Federation, which is 15.7M more people than last year and the highest estimate since NRF began tracking the data in 2017.
Snapshot: Black Friday continues to be the most popular day to scout out deals, with 72% (130.7M people) planning to shop, up from 69% in 2022. The numbers highlight the resilience of the American consumer, which is expected to spend an average of $875 on gifts, decorations, food and other key seasonal items over the winter holidays. To meet the demand of the season, NRF expects retailers will hire between 345,000 and 450,000 seasonal workers, in line with 391,000 seasonal hires of 2022.
The investing side of retail has also been a mixed bag this year. The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index (SP-25) has soared 33% YTD, led by names like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Chipotle (NYSE:CMG), Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE) and Royal Caribbean (NYSE:RCL), while the S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index has declined about 5%, weighed down by Conagra Brands (NYSE:CAG), Dollar General (NYSE:DG), Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN) and Walgreens (NASDAQ:WBA). Divergence could also be seen throughout the retail sector last week, with shares of Target (NYSE:TGT) soaring about 18% following its Q3 earnings report, while Walmart (NYSE:WMT) dove 8% after striking a cautious tone on consumer spending.
Black Friday schedule: The stock market will shut early at 1 PM today, bond markets will close an hour later, while metals and U.S. crude oil will settle at 12:30 PM and 1:30 PM, respectively. Some history… Back in 1992, the major U.S. exchange operators called for a 2 PM ET for the Friday after Thanksgiving, two hours earlier than the regular close at 4 PM. The following year, the NYSE and Nasdaq chose to shutter markets at 1 PM, a schedule that is currently observed.
ETFs: XLP, XLY, VDC, XRT, VCR, IBUY, FSTA, FDIS, RTH, RETL, PBJ, IYC, EMTY, FXG, PEJ, IYK, CLIX, FXD, ONLN, PSL, PSCC, UCC, SCC, WANT, PSCD, UGE, SZK, FTXG
