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OPEC maintained its expectations for global oil demand growth unchanged, but raised its economic forecast with inflation apparently easing and interest rate cuts coming in this year’s H2, it said Tuesday in its latest monthly report.
The cartel forecast oil demand will grow by 2.25M bbl/day this year, in line with its previous estimates, and it maintained its outlook for 2025 demand growth at 1.85M bbl/day, while raising raised its global economic growth forecast to 2.7% this year and 2.9% in 2025, bumped up from its previously outlook of 2.6% growth in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025.
The group lifted its estimates for U.S. economic growth to 1.6% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025, while it left the eurozone growth forecast unchanged at 0.5% this year and 1.2% next year.
OPEC said its own crude oil production fell by 350K bbl/day to 26.3M bbl/day in January compared with December.
“We are seeing positive signs of good revisions to some parts of the global economy, most notably the United States,” OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais said Tuesday at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, adding that “talking about peak oil demand is probably something way far out.”
“We still feel very robust” about China and see “phenomenal economic growth” in India, Al Ghais said.
OPEC’s expectation of oil demand growth is more optimistic than the expansion outlook of 1.24M bbl/day this year forecast so far by the International Energy Agency, which is scheduled to update its forecasts on Thursday.
U.S. crude oil rose for the seventh straight session on Tuesday, with the front-month Nymex contract (CL1:COM) for March finishing +1.2% to $77.87/bbl, while front-month April Brent crude (CO1:COM) closed +0.9% to $82.77/bbl.
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Crude oil gained even as equities fell sharply following a hotter than expected U.S. inflation reading for January and a rising dollar.
