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Novo Nordisk is preparing to unveil data for a “next generation” weight-loss drug it believes could lead the field of GLP-1 treatments, as drugmakers seek to better the results of blockbuster treatments Wegovy and Mounjaro.
The company expects late-stage data for CagriSema, due to be published next month, to show that the drug cuts weight by 25 per cent in just over a year. That compares with up to 16 per cent from Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy, and up to 22.5 per cent from Eli Lilly’s rival Mounjaro when administered alongside lifestyle interventions such as improved diet, exercise and sleep.
“CagriSema is really important for us. It’s a next-generation product and it has the potential to be best in class,” chief executive Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen told the Financial Times at the release this month of the company’s third-quarter results, adding that he had not yet seen final data for the compound.
The headline trial results will be closely monitored by pharmaceutical industry experts. Shares in Novo Nordisk, which remains Europe’s largest company by market capitalisation, have struggled to keep pace with those of its chief rival in the weight-loss sector, Eli Lilly.
Investor faith in Novo Nordisk’s ability to meet demand for its products has taken a hit, while the company also suffered a setback from disappointing results for an experimental weight loss pill in September.
Pointing to the removal of Wegovy from US shortage lists last week, Jørgensen said the company could meet demand and that share price movements showed “there’s a lot of hype around obesity and maybe misunderstandings about the underlying business position”.
Data on weight-loss drugs has shaken share prices in the pharmaceutical sector, with excitement around the medications dominating assessments of the industry’s prospects in recent years.
Roche shares surged in July when it unveiled early data for its weight-loss pill, only to slide in September on the back of concerns over side-effects.
Should CagriSema fail to deliver on its potential, investors may start to reconsider Novo Nordisk’s ability to lead the weight-loss field, according to Emily Field, an analyst at Barclays.
“This is the most important data point for pharma of the entire year,” she said. “Either Novo has a path into the next decade or they don’t.”
CagriSema combines semaglutide, the active ingredient in the company’s Ozempic and Wegovy that mimics the gut hormone GLP-1, with cagrilintide, a compound based on the pancreatic hormone amylin, in a once-weekly injection.
While Novo Nordisk is not expected to publish detailed data next month, the CagriSema results will be the most advanced for an amylin drug.
This will have wider significance for the field, as other drugmakers develop amylin-based treatments that, like GLP-1, reduce food intake and help the body control blood glucose levels.
Success for CagriSema could boost confidence in companies such as the Danish organisation Zealand Pharma, which is developing a drug based solely on amylin, said Michael Novod, an analyst at Nordea. Its market capitalisation has doubled this year as excitement about the drug class continues to build.
CagriSema is also being tested to treat type-2 diabetes and in a head-to-head trial with Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro, as Novo Nordisk has embarked on record research and development spending to stay ahead of rivals.
A range of approved weight-loss drugs could provide physicians with different options to prescribe to patients who need greater weight loss or who struggle with side-effects. “It’s not going to be a one size fits all,” said Novod.
He added that the data ranked as similarly important to advanced data for Ozempic, Mounjaro and Novo Nordisk’s Select trial that proved the benefits of GLP-1 drugs for treating conditions such as heart disease. “It’s a pivotal moment for the company’s ability to innovate and set a new target for other drugs,” he said.
