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It has been a while since humanoids stepped out of the pages of sci-fi writer Philip K Dick. Sophia, the work of Hong Kong-based Hanson Robotics, debuted in 2016 and gained (Saudi) citizenship a year later. Tesla’s Elon Musk plans to have his humanoids manning production lines next year.
Viewed from the C-suite, there is a lot to like. Human robots do not get sick, require pensions or join unions. Health and safety departments need not fret about how much stooping and carrying they do. There are no pesky demands to work from home either.
Strength, dexterity and a total lack of squeamishness make them useful across industries, from burger-flipping in eateries to bed-bathing in hospitals. Laser-sharp precision, not to mention an absence of toilet breaks, makes them perfect factory fodder.
All told, Citibank analysts reckon there could be 648mn humanoids by 2040. That is four times the size of today’s US workforce but still looks modest beside predictions from futuristic devotees such as tech entrepreneur David Holz, who puts the number at 1bn, and Musk, who concurs.
Payback is swift. Even on a $35,000 price tag and (US) minimum hourly wage of $7.25, upfront costs — based on a 96-hour working week — are recouped in under a year, says Citi. Raise that to a $16 hourly wage and it only takes a few months.
Like their flesh-and-blood peers, humanoids will learn as they go. Large language models, as used in AI, are the easy bit. Teaching behaviour is a newer science. But Toyota Research Institute, for instance, is championing large behaviour models. So far, it has used demonstrations to “teach” robots more than 500 skills.
What could go wrong? Red tape for starters. Regulators, ethicists and nation-states will be all over this from every conceivable angle — data privacy, labour and national security among them.
Costs could mount when downtime for charging and maintenance is factored in. Agility Robotics’ humanoids, already busy on Amazon shop floors, require one hour of charging for every two they work. The company is working to lift that ratio to one to four next year; its next version will operate on 1:10. Still, that is a lot of tea breaks.
Maintenance costs are about 20 per cent of total cost annually. Upgrades are not simply software but will affect hardware too, such as sensors, mobility functions and weight-bearing capabilities. Lifespans in a nascent industry are hard to judge but will probably be closer to cars than humans, maybe about 10 to 15 years.
Perhaps the biggest issue is application. Industry, healthcare and logistics all offer scope for robots able to sense, think and react — matching the barcode, say, for Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep, and packing it in the appropriate-sized box up in a fulfilment centre. Less obvious, however, is whether these robots really need to be bipedal and designed with Hollywood rather than out-of-town warehouses in mind.
louise.lucas@ft.com
